Analysis: Bitcoin's bear market has entered its late stage, with $64,000 as an important support level.

BlockBeats News, March 26 — According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has once again fallen below $70,000, with multiple on-chain and technical indicators suggesting that the current bear market is entering its late stage. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has dropped below 0.25, entering the “hope/fear zone.” CryptoQuant analyst The Enigma Trader pointed out that this means about 40% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is at a loss. Coupled with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 15, indicating “extreme fear,” it “reflects pain and uncertainty.” He added that if NUPL rises back above 0.25, it would signal entry into an optimistic zone, a shift historically associated with increased price momentum.

Glassnode states that the 7-day moving average of relative unrealized losses has stabilized at 15%. “Historically, resolving embedded losses at this level requires time, further price declines, or a sustained influx of fresh capital in a compressed timeframe.” Additionally, the realized profit after Bitcoin’s physical adjustment has fallen from a peak of $3 billion daily in July 2025 to less than $10 million now, a decline of over 96%. Glassnode describes this as “further evidence of demand exhaustion” and a “textbook feature of transitioning from the bear market towards the end stage.”

Regarding key levels, Bitcoin has been trading within a range recently, with support at $64,000 and resistance at $72,000. Glassnode notes that Bitcoin is trying to hold the 1-week to 1-month cost basis at $70,200, but the buying interest at this level is not strong enough. “Before a more solid base of support is established, the probability of breaking below this level cannot be ignored.” The main support below is around $54,000, based on realized price. Resistance above is at the 1-3 month cost basis of $82,200, and a dense zone of short-term positions above $84,000. Technical analyst CryptoPatel states that Bitcoin’s recent rise to $76,000 is just a lower high, and the higher timeframe structure “points lower.” He suggests that below $50,000 is the next truly significant area to watch.