Bitcoin rebounds to 72,000 USD maintaining volatility, Middle East tensions cool with "liquidations at only 152 million", but sentiment remains extremely panicked

Bitcoin rebounded over 5% from below $68,000 on Monday to stay above $71,674, with a high of $72,000, continuing to fluctuate. As of this morning (26th), it is at $71,674, with a short-term gain of over 5%. This rally is not due to technical breakout but rather a retreat in geopolitical risk sentiment—possibly signaling market optimism about US-Iran negotiations. Oil prices briefly fell below $100, providing a catalyst for risk assets to breathe easier. Ethereum also rose to $2,181, with the two main cryptocurrencies holding their recent consolidation range.

$52 Million Liquidated: 72% Longs, Mild Leverage Washout Supports Healthy Bottoming

In the past 24 hours, total market liquidations reached about $158 million, a relatively moderate figure. Most of these were long positions, indicating that the US-Iran negotiations went surprisingly smoothly. Analysts generally believe this washout was limited, with excess leverage already absorbed, and the market is building a healthy bottom rather than panicking and crashing.

US-Iran Negotiations “Productive,” Oil Price Drops Below $100 as Market Catalyst

The main external driver behind the market rebound is the easing of tensions in the Middle East. White House spokesperson Levi said Wednesday that negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing and “productive,” and that Washington has submitted a 15-point peace plan to Tehran. The core demand is Iran’s full abandonment of nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief. Levi did not confirm details of the plan (calling some media reports “inaccurate”), but the overall negotiation atmosphere is seen as moving toward reconciliation.

Oil prices responded by falling below $100 per barrel, boosting risk assets. US stocks closed higher on March 25: S&P 500 up 0.81% to 6,610, Nasdaq up 0.92% to 21,929, Dow up 0.66% to 46,429. The crypto market followed suit, with Bitcoin breaking above its recent consolidation range.

Limited Gains in SOL and XRP, Mainstream Coins Diverge

Other major cryptocurrencies showed mixed performance. Solana is at $91.84, trading within a narrow range of $80 to $92, with weak momentum and no clear breakout yet. XRP dropped from $1.60 support to around $1.43, showing relative weakness as some funds remain cautious about regulatory developments. Bitcoin’s market dominance stays at 62.4%, with a market cap of $1.43 trillion, indicating that major capital has not yet rotated into altcoins.

Fear Index at 9 for 46 Days, USDC Waiting Funds Over $1.6 Billion

Market sentiment remains uncertain. The Fear & Greed Index is at 9, in “extreme fear” territory, and has persisted for 46 days—longest since the FTX collapse. Stablecoin USDC’s 24-hour trading volume exceeds $1.61 billion, with large amounts of capital on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signals before entering.

Key upcoming points: whether US-Iran negotiations will reach a concrete agreement (a breakdown could quickly reintroduce geopolitical risks), if BTC can hold above $72,000 and attempt to challenge the 30-day high of $75,991, and whether off-exchange stablecoin funds will start flowing in. In the short term, the clearing of excess leverage is a positive sign, but the extremely low fear index and large USDC reserves suggest the market still needs time to digest uncertainties.