Jao Zhu, Golden Finance
On March 23, 2026, the global major asset markets experienced a rare synchronized sharp fluctuation, with crude oil, gold, and cryptocurrencies prices fluctuating significantly within a short period, and market sentiment rapidly shifting.
The core trigger for this market movement came from Trump’s latest statements regarding the Middle East situation.
- Trump’s Statement Causes Major Market Fluctuations
Yesterday, news that Trump delayed a military strike on Iran by five days directly led to significant market volatility.
On March 23, U.S. President Trump posted on social media: “I am pleased to report that the United States and Iran have had very good and productive discussions over the past two days to fully resolve our hostile actions in the Middle East. Based on the tone and atmosphere of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive talks (which will continue this week), I have instructed the Department of Defense to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, depending on whether ongoing meetings and discussions can succeed. Thank you all for your attention to this matter!”
Trump indicated that an agreement with Iran could be reached within five days, or even sooner.
As a result, international oil prices plummeted sharply, with Brent crude futures dropping over 14% at one point to around $96 per barrel, and WTI crude and European natural gas prices also declined. U.S. stocks opened higher, with the Dow up 1.6%, the S&P 500 up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq up 1.6%. Tech stocks rose across the board, with NVIDIA (NVDA.O) up 2%.
However, Iran directly denied Trump’s claims.
According to Fars News Agency, sources said that there has been no direct contact or communication through intermediaries between Iran and the U.S. After learning that Iran would strike all power plants in West Asia, Trump chose to back down.
- Details of Crude Oil, Gold, and Crypto Market Trends
1. Crude Oil
Brent crude hit a low of $97.08 yesterday, down 17.92% from the high of $118.27 on March 19. It has since rebounded slightly, trading at $104.31, up 7.45% from yesterday’s low.
The recent sharp fluctuations in oil prices were mainly influenced by Trump’s remarks. His initial comments eased geopolitical tensions, leading the market to expect a cooling of the Middle East situation, which was quickly priced in as a “risk premium decline,” causing oil prices to plunge; but then Iran denied progress in talks, reducing expectations of de-escalation, and the price decline narrowed.
Currently, the U.S. and Iran remain at odds.
An Iranian senior official stated that Trump has no authority to set conditions or deadlines for negotiations. The official said Iran and the U.S. have exchanged messages through Egypt and Turkey to ease tensions, but the U.S. has yet to accept Iran’s two core demands: compensation for damages and acknowledgment of Iran’s rights. Regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and laying mines, Iran is still considering options for potential actions.
This morning, Iran reported that the U.S. and Israel attacked two energy infrastructure sites in central Isfahan and southwestern Khorramshahr. The gas company building and gas pressure reduction station in Isfahan were attacked, causing damage to some facilities and nearby residences. The gas pipeline at Khorramshahr power plant was also targeted, but no casualties occurred.
The current Middle East situation has not substantially eased, especially with ongoing risks at the critical Strait of Hormuz. Under the continued uncertainty on the supply side, oil prices are likely to remain high in the short term with high volatility.
2. Gold
On March 23, spot gold fell below $4,100 per ounce for the first time since November 24 last year, dropping sharply by 8.6 intraday. It has since rebounded slightly, trading at $4,332.48, still below the previous peak of over $5,000.
The gold market’s performance this round has been notably weaker than traditional expectations, with its safe-haven attributes not showing clear strength.
Trump’s easing of geopolitical risks increased short-term selling pressure; the Federal Reserve signaled a hawkish stance, reinforcing market expectations of prolonged high interest rates, which pushed real interest rates higher and suppressed non-yielding assets like gold; oil price volatility also strengthened the dollar temporarily, further pressuring gold prices.
On March 24, BIT Official released daily chart analysis stating that gold is experiencing a significant correction for the first time in recent years, with prices falling to around $4,400. It is expected that buying interest will emerge in this area, with stronger support possibly around $3,500.
In the short term, markets are repricing higher interest rate paths and stronger inflation expectations, driving up real interest rates—usually a bearish factor for gold. However, this impact may be only temporary and not a fundamental change in medium-term outlook.
From a medium to long-term perspective, the ongoing expansion of sovereign debt remains a key structural factor supporting gold demand. As governments increase borrowing to cope with geopolitical uncertainties, defense spending, and broader fiscal expenditures, this trend could further strengthen. Under this backdrop, prices below $4,400 may increasingly attract long-term investment.
Shaokai Fan, head of global central bank relations at the World Gold Council, pointed out that gold’s role as a hedge against de-dollarization and geopolitical risks is expected to prompt central banks that have been absent from the market to buy this precious metal this year. In recent months, some new central banks—long inactive or absent from gold markets—are entering the market. He believes this trend may continue into 2026.
3. Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrency prices started rising last night. As of the report, BTC is up 3.6% in 24 hours, at $70,592.98. ETH increased 4.1% in 24 hours, at $2,139.39; SOL up 4.6%, at $90.50.
Similarly affected by Trump’s remarks, market expectations for Middle East conflict have cooled, boosting global risk appetite. Funds are flowing out of traditional safe assets into high-risk assets like BTC, leading to an overall upward trend in the crypto market.
Overall, Trump’s statements disrupted geopolitical expectations and market risk appetite, amplifying the volatility of crude oil, gold, and cryptocurrencies in the short term, reflecting high sensitivity to policy uncertainties.
- Polymarket Reappears Insider Trading, Will Market Rules Be Reshuffled?
On March 23, Trump told AFP in a phone interview that negotiations with Iran are “progressing very smoothly.” According to Trump, both sides are eager to reach an agreement. However, Iran denied any talks with the U.S. on the same day.
Bloomberg reported that just before Trump announced this, ten newly created accounts on Polymarket invested about $160,000 on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire prediction market, betting that a ceasefire would be reached before March 31 or April 15. If the ceasefire occurs by the end of this month, these accounts could profit $1.04 million.
These accounts were discovered on Sunday by Lirrato on X and shared by Polymarket History. After Trump’s post on Monday, these ten accounts’ positions increased by over $300,000 in unrealized gains. A trading account named “NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS” drew attention due to its betting history. The account was opened in late February, with initial bets of $7,600 on an attack on Iran before February 28, and $11,283 on an attack before March 1, winning over $85,000.
Currently, the account has bets of $8,005 on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before March 31, and $15,614 before April 15, with total value exceeding $30,000.
The scale, timing, and past records of these bets have raised suspicions: Are these Polymarket accounts operated by insiders with political connections to the U.S. or Iran, who may have insider information on current diplomatic developments?
On Monday, Kalshi and Polymarket announced new trading safeguards to address insider trading concerns.
Kalshi stated it will proactively ban political candidates from trading using their campaign activities and individuals involved in college and professional sports (such as athletes, staff, and referees). Polymarket said it will restrict certain types of markets, including those considered easily manipulated or involving sensitive moral issues.
Former Cointelegraph research analyst Ben Yorke pointed out that the bets on Iran attacks suggest “someone has insider information,” as these bets were placed at market prices and involved multiple accounts, apparently to conceal their identities.
On the same day, Democratic Senator Adam Schiff and Republican Senator John C. Cuttis proposed a bill to ban certain “gambling-like” event contracts. The “Prediction Market as Gambling Act” would prohibit listing event contracts similar to sports betting or casino-style games on entities registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, including Kalshi and Polymarket.
“Sports prediction contracts are essentially sports betting, just under a different name. These contracts are available in all fifty states, which clearly violates state and federal laws,” the legislation states. It aims to clarify regulatory jurisdiction and ensure states retain authority over sports betting and casino gaming.
- BTC Market Outlook
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Analyst Daan Crypto Trades states: “The $64,000 to $65,000 range is worth watching. Currently, the market is very concerned about the latter, which is why most markets have experienced significant sell-offs in recent trading days.”
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Analyst Rachael Lucas from BTC Markets notes: “The future of cryptocurrencies depends on de-escalation of the Iran conflict and Federal Reserve decisions. The surge in Brent crude prices ‘raises inflation expectations,’ and the likelihood of Fed rate hikes has jumped from zero to 12.4% within a week. This is a major macro re-pricing, and until both aspects become clearer, cryptocurrencies will continue to reflect this change.” She adds, “If the Iran conflict de-escalates, cryptocurrencies will be one of the fastest recovering risk assets. However, with no clear negotiation opponents or end date, short-term predictions are difficult. When market sentiment is so bearish and fundamentals are strong, history shows conditions for recovery are forming, even if the timing remains uncertain.”
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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. states: Bitcoin is currently trading near the 200-week moving average at $68,300, aligning with the “largest holder group (100-1000 BTC).” “As long as the price stays above $68,000, the largest Bitcoin holders can maintain a near-cost basis. Falling below this level indicates structural deterioration and may trigger more nervous reactions from major investors.”
Bitcoin’s balance between the $10 and $100 range and the $100 to $1,000 range. Source: CryptoQuant
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Analyst Stockmoney Lizards states: “BTC has again fallen below the EMA50, and today’s global crisis is more worrying than two weeks ago.” Coupled with weak technicals, “it looks like we may again break below $60,000.”
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Analyst Michael J. Cramer predicts: “Bitcoin is about to fall to the mid-$40,000s, which is the next target for decline.”
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Macroeconomist Lynn Alden states that Bitcoin may outperform gold over the next three years. “This is often a pendulum effect between the two. If gold prices have risen significantly, the diminishing returns in each cycle will also be broken in the next cycle,” but hedge fund legend Ray Dalio believes that Bitcoin will never replace gold as a store of value because it still trades like a risk asset, related to tech stocks, whereas gold remains deeply rooted as a reserve asset in the banking system.
