Financial markets are increasingly believing that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate policy for an extended period, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability. According to the latest valuations, investors no longer expect rate cuts before 2026, indicating a prolonged tightening of monetary policy.
This outlook suggests policymakers may prioritize controlling inflation over promoting growth, even if the economy shows signs of slowing down. The first rate cut is now forecasted for September 2027, significantly later than previously expected. Analysts say this shift reflects uncertainty about inflation trends and economic prospects. Currently, a prolonged high-interest-rate environment remains the main scenario.
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