BNY Mellon: The Fed Will Deliver a Hawkish Rate Cut This Week, Dot Plot Reveals Policy Divergence

According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, analysts at BNY Mellon noted in a report that the market has fully priced in expectations for a Fed rate cut this month, but there is a growing consensus that this will be a hawkish rate cut. Further monetary easing will depend on whether economic data released in March and June 2026 weakens or if inflation continues to decline. The analysts also mentioned that the upcoming change in the Fed Chair poses a risk, as the market will assess the policy stance of the new leadership. In addition, the FOMC will release the dot plot, and it is expected that there will be significant divergence among committee members regarding the policy outlook for 2026, reflecting two-sided economic risks.