Current price and market background

Figure:https://www.gate.com/trade/XRP_USDT

As of June 17, 2025, XRP is priced at 2.25 USD. Over the past week, the price has fluctuated between 2.10 and 2.35 USD, with market sentiment being cautious. The moderate rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum has boosted overall sector activity, but due to a lack of significant positive stimuli, XRP has not yet experienced a unilateral surge. Data from multiple exchanges shows that long positions and short positions frequently clash between 2.20 and 2.30 USD, and it remains mainly range-bound in the short term.

Volume and On-chain Indicator Analysis

1. Daily trading volume increase: The average daily trading volume of XRP over the past three days has risen by about 15% compared to the previous week, indicating an increase in market participation. If the price breaks through key resistance, the increased trading volume will further amplify long positions.
2. Large Holder Positions: On-chain data shows a slight accumulation trend in whale addresses, with the total holdings of the top 20 addresses increasing by approximately 120 million XRP compared to two weeks ago, indicating that institutions or large holders are quietly positioning themselves.
3. Net outflow from exchanges: Major exchanges like Binance and Kraken have seen a small net outflow of approximately 500,000 USD, indicating an increased willingness to hold long-term and a reduction in short-term selling pressure.

Detailed Explanation of Key Support and Resistance Levels

• First support level: 2.10 USD. This level is the low point of multiple rebounds in the past five trading days. Once it retraces and stabilizes, it can be regarded as a safe buying zone.
• Second support: 2.00 USD. A psychological round number, if it breaks below, short-term long positions confidence will be damaged, potentially leading to a rapid decline; it is recommended to set a stop loss in the range of 1.98–2.00 USD.
• Initial resistance: 2.33 USD. The intraday high coincides with the upper Bollinger band; long positions need to break through with volume to confirm the trend reversal.
• Mid-term resistance: 2.50 USD. If it holds, it will open up the second level upward space, with a focus on changes in trading volume.
• Strong resistance: 3.00 USD. The long positions target in this article, combined with technical and fundamental analysis, has challenge value.

Comprehensive Interpretation of Mainstream Technical Indicators

MACD momentum and divergence

• On the daily chart, the MACD has formed a golden cross, with the DIF crossing above the DEA, and the red bars continue to expand, indicating that long positions momentum is strengthening.
• On the weekly level, the MACD is still hovering below the zero axis, indicating that the long-term trend has not completely turned bullish, and long positions need to continue to exert strength.

Bollinger Band Width and Channel Oscillation

• The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 2.20 USD, and the price has received support at the middle band multiple times; the upper band is near 2.35 USD, and breaking through this level will release new upward space.
• The Bollinger Bands width indicator is in a slight opening stage after a contraction. If it continues to open with increased volume, it signifies that a large fluctuation is imminent.

RSI overbought and oversold observation

• The RSI (daily) is currently around 62, not yet entering the overbought zone (above 70), and long positions still have room to rise.
• If the RSI rises rapidly above 75, be cautious of short-term pullback risks, which can be seen as a signal to reduce positions.

Moving Average System Trend Analysis

• The 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average are in a long position near 2.23 USD, and the 5-day moving average has crossed above the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term buying signal.
• The 50-day moving average is currently at 2.05 USD. If the price retraces and stays above it, it indicates that the medium-term trend remains solid.

Long positions target and phased strategy

Phase One (2.10–2.33 USD)

• It is recommended to build positions in two batches: the first batch in the range of 2.17–2.20 USD, and the second batch in the range of 2.10–2.15 USD.
• Set the stop-loss level below 2.00 USD to control risk.

Phase 2 (2.33–2.50 USD)

• If the price breaks through 2.33 USD and holds, increase the position to 60% of the total position.
• Move the stop loss to the initial cost position to lock in no losses.

Phase 3 (2.50–3.00 USD)

• Accumulate in the range of 2.50–2.70 USD, and when the price hits 3.00 USD, reduce positions in batches.
• The target profit range can be set at 2.80–3.00 USD, and if it breaks through, consider adding a profit strategy.

Risk Warning and Hedging Suggestions

• Systemic risk: Significant changes in the global macro environment or regulatory policies may lead to a substantial decline in the cryptocurrency market.
• Technical failure risk: If the price continues to fall and breaks below 2.00 USD, one should decisively cut losses and exit.
• Market sentiment fluctuations: Sudden news (such as large holder sell-offs or exchange hacking incidents) can amplify volatility in the short term.

Hedging Advice:

• You can allocate some funds in mainstream stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) for quick purchases during sharp market declines.
• Consider using options contracts or perpetual contracts for mild hedging, but strictly control the leverage ratio.