Will Bitcoin Surge Back to $130,000? Latest On-Chain Data Reveals the 2025 Trend

Market status: BTC has become more volatile after dropping below 100,000.

After entering 2025, the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 after attempting to reach $110,000 without success, influenced by macro pressures and deleveraging. The main reasons include:

• The Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts, putting pressure on risk assets.
• Some overly leveraged longs were liquidated.
• ETF inflows have slowed, and some funds are choosing to wait and see.
• The overall sentiment in the crypto market is neutral to weak.

Although short-term sentiment is weak, the market has not shown extreme panic signals similar to historical tops, and several on-chain indicators have even begun to show rebound potential. This has made the question of whether Bitcoin can rebound to $130,000 in the next few quarters a current focus of discussion.

The rebound signals indicated by the three major on-chain indicators

Whales have started to accumulate again.

On-chain monitoring agencies indicate that large holders (holding over 1,000 BTC) began to gradually buy in when BTC pulled back to the range of $95,000 to $100,000. Whales are the main force in historical cycles, and their actions often lead market sentiment.

In the past three major cycles, the pattern of whales increasing their holdings → price stabilizing → a new trend starting is highly consistent.

Exchange Netflow Increase

Data shows that BTC is continuing to flow out of exchanges, indicating that the market prefers long-term holding rather than short-term selling pressure. The outflow from exchanges is similar to the mid-stage of a bull market, showing that investors are not pessimistic enough to completely abandon this cycle.

Long-term holders SOPR is approaching a turning point.

The SOPR of long-term holders (LTH) is close to 1, which is a typical range before the start of multiple rounds of upward movements. When long-term holders are willing to continue holding without selling, it indicates that a support zone is forming at the bottom.

Considering these three on-chain indicators, the Bitcoin counterattack is not without foundation.

2025 Bitcoin price prediction range analysis

By combining on-chain data, institutional views, and macroeconomic factors, the following prediction range can be roughly provided:

Conservative prediction: $110,000–$120,000

Applicable in the following situations:

• The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a hawkish stance.
• ETF inflows remain low
• Market sentiment is neutral to weak.

This interval indicates that Bitcoin maintains a range-bound pattern.

Median forecast: $125,000–$135,000

This is currently the most关注区间 in the market. Reasons supporting this区间 include:

• Whales continue to accumulate
• Exchange outflow stable
• Mainstream institutions (such as exchange research departments) mostly provide neutral upward forecasts for this range.

This also corresponds to the core basis of the title of this article proposing “a counterattack to 130,000 dollars.”

Strong prediction: $150,000–$160,000

Applicable to the following optimistic scenarios:

• The Federal Reserve shifts to interest rate cuts before mid-year.
• ETF funds accelerate again
• The market has re-entered the “mid-term bull market outbreak stage”.

This range implies that a new high may appear in the second half of 2025. In terms of SEO keyword layout, the logic of this article clearly corresponds to the latest trends in Bitcoin price prediction.

Risk factors: What is preventing BTC from returning to $130,000?

Despite the bullish on-chain indicators, the following risks may hinder the rise:

Macroeconomic policy fluctuations: If the Federal Reserve continues to maintain high interest rates, it will impose significant pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

The market may de-leverage again: once BTC attempts to break through key resistance levels, the overcrowding of bulls may also lead to sharp short-term fluctuations.

Geopolitics and regulatory policies: If the United States or the European Union implements stricter regulatory measures, it may slow down institutional participation.

The sustainability of ETF inflows is unknown: ETFs are key to this bull market, but inflows are not one-sided. If there are continuous net outflows, the market may experience longer periods of volatility.

Investor Strategies: How to Layout for Short-term and Long-term?

Long-term investors (Long-term)

• You can continue to adopt the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) model.
• Maintain a 1–3 year holding perspective
• Bitcoin’s property as “digital gold” is still strengthening.

The long-term logic remains intact.

Swing traders

You can pay attention to the price fluctuation opportunities in the range of 105,000–115,000 dollars.

After breaking through $120,000, tracking the trading volume can determine whether a new upward trend is forming.

Risk management recommendations

• Avoid using high leverage.
• Set reasonable stop-loss
• Pay attention to key events such as the Federal Reserve meeting, CPI data, and ETF inflows.