Focus on Late 2025: Will the U.S. Rate Cut Begin in December?

Background of Interest Rate Cuts: Inflation Relief or Employment Crisis?

The current U.S. economy is at a complex crossroads: inflation is slowly declining from its high levels but remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%. Meanwhile, while the job market is no longer expanding rapidly, it has not fully stalled either. However, private data indicates a decline in hiring enthusiasm and an increase in layoff negotiations.

In this context of “slowing inflation + a loosening labor market that has not collapsed,” the Federal Reserve is indecisive between cutting interest rates and maintaining stability. As a result, its policy signals have become particularly important.

Official Statements Insight: Who Plays the “Interest Rate Cut Card” and Who Holds the Brake?

In the policy and public opinion battle, supporters of interest rate cuts, like Waller, pointed out: “The labor market is close to stalling, and inflation is near the target, so we should cut rates in December.” In contrast, the hawkish faction, represented by Jefferson, stated: “We should act slowly and not cut rates too early.” Furthermore, several regional presidents have publicly stated that they are not inclined to further rate cuts without clear data support. It is evident that there is no consensus within the Federal Reserve, and the question of how likely a rate cut in December is has become a market focus.

Market reaction: Asset volatility and expectation changes

According to market reports, the probability of a rate cut has fallen from around 70% to about 50%. Meanwhile, gold prices have risen slightly, as diminished bets on a rate cut lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets. In the stock market, if rate cut expectations are not met, a short-term adjustment may occur. Therefore, “whether to cut rates” is no longer just a macro topic, but a key variable in asset pricing.

What will happen if interest rates are not cut? The risk of a failed rate cut.

If the Federal Reserve decides not to cut interest rates in December, it may bring the following risks:

• The lack of “insurance” against economic downturns, coupled with a worsening labor market, may intensify the risk of recession.
• Market expectations have failed, and investors may readjust their asset allocation, putting pressure on risk assets.
• Bond yields may rise again, and the transmission path of the banking system may be affected.

That is to say, not lowering interest rates does not mean safety, but rather a different kind of waiting.

Reader’s Practical Guide: How to Prepare in Advance and Avoid Traps?

• Debt aspect: If considering loans or refinancing, closely monitor the post-meeting statement to quickly assess whether it is necessary to lock in interest rates in advance.
• In terms of investment assets: It is advisable to remain flexible and avoid heavily betting on “rate cuts being inevitable.” For example, one could moderately reduce holdings in high-risk assets when expectations for rate cuts decline.
• Cash flow management: In extreme cases, if interest rate cuts fail and lead to market fluctuations, retain a certain level of liquidity to cope with volatility.
• Information subscription: Pay attention to the Federal Reserve meeting dates, employment, and key inflation indicators.

In summary, “whether the U.S. interest rate cut will start in December” is a dynamic process, and the judgment relies on data, logic, and preparedness.