Still looking forward to the big pump of meme coins? Opinion: The so-called meme super cycle is the disillusionment period of encryption

According to the technology maturity curve, our industry's technological development stage is now approaching the disillusionment phase: 01928374656574839201

Image source: C Labs encryption observation

When a new thing emerges, the period of technological birth (Innovation Trigger), also called the dawn period.

This period is characterized by the fact that there are not too many people involved.

If something is known by everyone on the street, how could it possibly be in its early stages?

After dawn, there is a peak period of excessive anticipation.

The typical feature of our encryption industry entering the peak period is all kinds of narratives flying all over the sky, such as public chains, GameFi, Decentralized Finance, etc.

At this time, a large number of talents and funds poured into the encryption industry, which was also the most fear of missing out time.

It's just that our encryption technology does have a significant impact, so the process of peaking to disillusionment has occurred several times.

Exactly, after a high-expectation narrative, there is always another narrative to make up for it.

Like a handsome scumbag, even though he deceives me every time, I still have expectations every time.

However, the development of new technology industries tends to be leapfrogging, so the curve of our industry should be like this. Large cycles contain many small cycles.

Actually, AI is the same.

During World War II, expectations for AI were also high. Pro Sima He, who won the Turing Award in 1975 and the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1978, once guaranteed when budgeting in the 1960s: Within the next twenty years, machines will be able to perform all tasks that humans can accomplish.

Image source: C Labs encryption observation

Results now it's 2024, the big beauty is that we have to do video editing, community operations, graphic design work, and recruit people from all over the world.

ChatGPT, which is claimed to be amazing, cannot replace the work of any member of our team.

Of course, the development of our AI has also evolved from the general AI narrative that Simahe initially believed could do anything.

For example, artificial neural networks developed in the 1990s, with typical application scenarios at that time being character recognition. Jumped for a moment

The development of Depth learning in the 21st century, which is also the main research achievement of Mr. Hinton, who recently won the Nobel Prize in Physics, is mainly applied in face recognition scenarios. It skipped

Now, ChatGPT, as a representative of large language models, is mainly used for chatting in various scenarios. It has made further progress.

Let's take a look back at the entrepreneurs in the encryption industry a few years ago, each of them shouting for a revolution, right?

Some want to be listed on Nasdaq in the encryption industry, and some want to change the world of finance.

And now? One by one, they shout for Compliance, for the realization of landing scenes

This is the typical characteristic of entering the disillusionment period and gradually entering the period of steady climb.

Once there are more useful projects, it enters a period of high productivity and stability.

When we invest, there is a consistent psychological curve and technology maturity curve.

In this psychological curve, the peak of excessive expectation is called the peak of ignorance; the period of disillusionment when expectations are shattered is called the valley of despair, and the period of steady climbing is called the slope of enlightenment:

Image source: C Labs encryption observation

When a new technology, such as encryption, emerges, investors often stand at the peak of ignorance when the technology enters a period of excessive anticipation.

After the technology enters the disillusionment phase, investors often fall into the valley of despair.

When our encryption industry enters a disillusionment phase, our investment in encryption will enter a meme super cycle, and everything will be perceived as a meme.

After the disillusionment period, encryption technology and participating investors may enter an inspiration period, and it is only at this time that the encryption industry will truly usher in spring.

[Disclaimer] The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk.

This article is authorized to be reproduced from: 'Foresight News'.

Original author: Observer Lao Wang