Bitcoin may fall below $60,000: the breakeven cycle could extend to 2027, with whale selling pressure increasing downside risk

According to Mars Finance, on March 28, Cointelegraph reported that the latest data shows that if Bitcoin falls further below $60,000, the market’s recovery to historical highs may be postponed until 2027. Analysis indicates that Bitcoin has retraced about 48% from its high of approximately $126,000 in 2025, and according to historical patterns, for every additional 10% drop, the recovery period is typically extended by about 80 days. If $60,000 is considered a temporary bottom, it is expected to take about 300 days to complete the recovery; however, if it continues to drop to the $40,000–$45,000 range, the overall retracement will exceed 60%, and the recovery period may extend to about 440 days, pushing the timeline to after the second quarter of 2027. On-chain indicators also show that the bottom has not yet been confirmed. The Blockchain Composite Market Index (BCMI) is currently around 0.27, above the historical bottom range (approximately 0.12–0.15), indicating that there is still room for further downside. In terms of capital flow, whale selling continues to escalate pressure. Data shows that selling by large holders has reached the highest level in nearly 18 months, while liquidity in both the spot and futures markets is weakening simultaneously. Institutional views suggest that the current market is in a deep adjustment cycle, and if the macro environment remains tight (including maintaining high interest rates or even further rate hikes), it will further delay the recovery pace of the cryptocurrency market.