Does Bitcoin Still Have a 4-Year Cycle? The Answer Is: It Still Has a Long Way to Go

Short conclusion: Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle will continue to exist for a long time, and the key factor depends on the miners’ revenue structure. Currently, most miners’ income comes from block rewards, while transaction fees account for a very small proportion. As long as transaction fees do not constitute a significant share (around over 50% of the block reward), the 4-year cycle—linked to halving events—will still dominate the market.

The Nature of the Cycle: Supply and Mining Costs Bitcoin has a very “rigid” mechanism: each block only produces a fixed amount of BTC, regardless of how much mining power increases. This keeps the new supply tightly controlled. Therefore, Bitcoin’s long-term price always revolves around a core factor: mining costs. When prices are too low → miners are unprofitable → shut down → supply decreases → price stabilizes. When prices are too high → mining profits surge → market excitement → potential peaks.

An Important Measure: Value per Block If we convert the value of each block based on BTC price, a clear pattern emerges: “Overheated” zone: ~400,000 USD / block → usually cycle peak “Stable” zone: ~200,000 – 250,000 USD / block “Bottom” zone: ~40,000 – 100,000 USD / block (depending on the phase) Interestingly, this bottom level gradually increases with each cycle, indicating that Bitcoin’s baseline price is rising.

Forecast After Halving Events 2028 (reward: 1.5625 BTC/block) Hot peak: ~256,000 USD Stable zone: ~128,000 – 160,000 USD Cycle bottom: ~64,000 USD

2032 (reward: 0.78125 BTC/block) To reach “stability,” BTC price needs to be around ~256,000 USD => Over time, to maintain miners’ profitability, BTC price must increase accordingly.

Factors That Could Break the Cycle Currently, each block only earns about ~0.01 BTC in transaction fees—almost negligible compared to the block reward. The 4-year cycle truly weakens when: Transaction fees ≥ 50% of the block reward → cycle begins to fade Transaction fees ≈ 100% of the block reward → cycle may disappear However, at the current rate, this is unlikely to happen within the next few decades.

Conclusion Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is not a “market belief,” but a consequence of issuance mechanisms and mining economics. As long as miners’ revenue structure remains unchanged, this cycle will continue to repeat. In other words: halving still influences → the cycle persists.