Wintermute: Middle East Tensions Escalate, Stagflation Risks Mount, Crypto Market Gets Temporary Respite

Deep Tide TechFlow News, on March 17th, the crypto market maker Wintermute posted on social media that the Middle East situation has entered its third week of escalation. Brent crude oil prices rose 26% during the week, and the market has revised down the 2026 interest rate cut expectations to just once. Against this backdrop, the crypto market outperformed all major asset classes except oil, with BTC rising during the week, while stocks, bonds, and gold all declined.

In digital assets, BTC rebounded about 10% from Monday’s lows, with seven consecutive bullish daily candles, regaining the $71,000 level; ETH also followed the trend and stayed above $2,000. Coinbase’s BTC premium indicator has reset, and the persistent structural discount pressure from previous months has eased. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded its first five consecutive days of net inflows in 2026, totaling $767 million, with $251 million inflow on Monday alone, led by IBIT; Ethereum ETFs saw about $160 million in net inflows over four days. Strategy increased its holdings by 1,360 BTC again; Bitmine announced the purchase of ETH worth $128 million, and the Ethereum Foundation directly sold 5,000 ETH to it via OTC. The BTC implied volatility index (DVOL) compressed from 61 to 51, and the correlation between BTC and stocks has also significantly weakened.

On the macro front, core PCE annualized rate reached 3.1%, non-farm payrolls were -92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, with stagflation becoming the baseline scenario. This week, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will all announce interest rate decisions on the same day, marking the most macro-focused single-day event in recent months.