QCP: The current U.S. economy is closer to the late cycle rather than a recession, and this week's data will determine the future direction of Bitcoin.

On November 19, QCP released its daily market observation stating that this week, Bitcoin continued to fall, briefly dropping below the key $90,000 level, due to tightening market expectations for interest rate hikes and continuous outflows from ETFs suppressing market sentiment. Thin liquidity further amplified this wave of decline, showing that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly sensitive to changes in the macro environment. This pullback occurred against a backdrop of the Fed's expected rapid repricing—markets adjusted from an almost certain rate cut in December to a roughly balanced probability. This puts pressure on interest rate-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, while the stock market remained relatively stable due to robust corporate earnings reports, particularly strong profits and record AI-driven capital expenditures reported by large tech companies (hyperscalers). With the reopening of the U.S. government, official data is being released, providing the market with necessary insights into economic fundamentals. This week, the market is highly focused on labor market data and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which has now incorporated the latest job vacancy data. This information will help determine whether labor tightness or inflation will dominate the Fed's policy response in 2026. Under the surface, the U.S. economy still shows a K-shaped divergence: spending by high-income households remains resilient, while low-income groups face increasing pressure. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated a cautious stance, noting that a rate cut in December is 'not certain'. Overall, current economic conditions are closer to the late cycle rather than a recession phase. Although fiscal constraints and labor market divergence present ongoing risks, the resilience of household balance sheets and corporate capital expenditures still provide a buffer against downturns. This week's data will determine whether the Bitcoin pullback is a temporary position adjustment or the beginning of a broader decline in risk appetite.