Bernstein: The recent Bitcoin dumping is mainly due to investors' concerns about the four-year cycle peak.

On November 17, The Block reported that Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen approximately 25% since reaching an all-time high of around $126,000 on October 6. According to analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein, this marks a short-term pullback rather than the beginning of a significant downtrend. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani stated in a report to clients on Monday that this decline reflects investors' anxiety over the historical four-year cycle pattern, which has seen peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Many investors sold off early during the fourth-quarter market weakness, believing that 2025 would repeat this pattern, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy to some extent. However, they believe the current fundamentals are stronger, and data suggests this is more likely to be a “relatively shallow pullback,” forming a new local bottom rather than the 60% to 70% declines seen in historical cycles, thanks to substantial absorption of supply by long-term holders. The analysis pointed out that over the past six months, investors who have held coins for at least a year have sold about 340,000 BTC (approximately $38 billion), while around $34 billion in funds has flowed into Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, largely absorbing these dumpings. Looking ahead, analysts believe the market “is not at a cyclical peak,” but rather part of a multi-year trend defined by institutional participation and periodic moderate pullbacks. They are watching whether Bitcoin can establish a bottom around $80,000—a level that emerged after last year's U.S. presidential election—and believe the current pullback may provide an attractive get on board opportunity for digital assets and related stocks.