Analysis: The fall of Bitcoin is triggered by the tightening of liquidity in the United States and the continuous selling pressure from American investors.

On November 14, CryptoQuant's XWIN Research released an analysis stating that Bitcoin's recent drop below $100,000 is not merely a simple market fluctuation, but rather the result of multiple structural pressures centered around the United States coinciding. On-chain data strongly indicates that American investors are the dominant force behind the current downward trend. First, the CEX premium index has been significantly negative for several weeks, indicating that the selling pressure from American investors far exceeds the buying from Asia or Europe. This aligns with the recent recurring trend: Bitcoin rebounds during Asian hours but shows a clear reversal during U.S. trading hours. Second, long-term holders (LTH) across all age groups are synchronously selling. Analysts, including Will Clemente, point out that the selling pressure does not come from a specific group, but appears simultaneously among holders with 6 months, 18 months, 3 years, or even 7 years of holdings. This situation is extremely rare and strongly suggests that American investors are engaging in year-end tax optimization. Fidelity also confirmed that many American LTH are locking in profits to complete their annual position settlements. Third, the U.S. government shutdown has led to a severe tightening of liquidity. With federal spending forced to pause, the government has unusually recorded a fiscal surplus, pulling billions of dollars in liquidity out of the system. Coupled with the market's cooling expectations for interest rate cuts in December, the overall risk appetite in the U.S. has clearly declined. The U.S. stock market has broadly fallen, with crypto-related stocks dropping 10-20%, and Bitcoin has also experienced a similar liquidity-driven pullback. In summary, these factors create a clear narrative: the current adjustment is primarily driven by the U.S. Structural selling by long-term holders, liquidity decline due to fiscal tightening, and the persistent weak market during U.S. hours have collectively amplified market fluctuations. As liquidity gradually recovers in the coming weeks, market conditions may stabilize, but short-term pressure will still be heavily influenced by U.S. market dynamics.