The Fed's recent views on interest rates have shown a "three-way split" among committee members, with Chairman Powell leaning dovishly.

On October 30, the recent interest rate views of this year's voting members of the Fed showed “three polarizations” as follows: 1. Advocate for a significant rate cut: Fed Governor Mulan: Supports a 50 basis point rate cut in October. It sounds realistic to cut rates two more times this year. The differences in policy views with colleagues are more based on the speed of rate cuts rather than the ultimate goal of rate cuts. 2. Dovish: Fed Chair Powell: The liquidity in the monetary market is gradually tightening, and the balance sheet reduction may be nearing its end in the coming months; recent economic activity data is stronger than expected, and the downside risks in the labor market are rising. Acting too slowly may suppress employment, while acting too quickly may cause the anti-inflation task to be abandoned halfway. 3. Fed Governor Waller: Supports a 25 basis point rate cut in October. Officials can gradually ease monetary policy by cutting rates by 25 basis points each time to support the weak labor market. Rate cuts are needed, but should be done cautiously. 4. Fed Governor Bowman: Continues to expect two more rate cuts by the end of this year. As long as the labor market and other economic data develop in the direction I expect, we will continue on the path of lowering the federal funds rate. 5. Fed Collins: Given the reduced inflation risks and concerns in the labor market, further rate cuts seem “prudent,” and a 25 basis point cut may be appropriate. 6. Fed Williams: Supports further rate cuts this year, although the inflation rate has deviated from the central bank's 2% target in recent months. Rate cuts are to prevent further deepening of the labor market cracks. 7. Hawkish: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: Inflation and employment targets face risks, and caution is needed. 8. Fed Governor Barr: The Fed should be cautious about further rate cuts; current rates are moderately restrictive, tariffs pose risks to inflation, and the labor market is potentially fragile despite being in a balanced state. 9. Fed Musalem: Holds a skeptical attitude towards further rate cuts. Supports a 25 basis point cut in September due to increased risks in the labor market, but further cuts may mean excessive complacency about rising prices since the inflation rate is nearly one percentage point above the Fed's 2% target. 10. Fed Schmidt: Leans towards not further cutting rates; the Fed should continue to monitor the risks of high inflation while balancing between the dual risks of overly tight and overly loose policy. 11. Fed Goolsbee: Cautious about a significant early rate cut, not expecting inflation to self-correct. Observing that both aspects of the Fed's dual mandate are deteriorating. ( Jin10 )