Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: The Fed's Interest Rate Cut Cycle is About to Restart, and the Dot Plot Will Become the New Battleground for the Market

On September 13, over the past week, moderate CPI and PPI inflation reports, along with a surge in initial unemployment claims, have paved the way for the Fed to at least cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. Concerns about the labor market and prices have led the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index to hit a new low since May, with long-term inflation expectations rising for two consecutive months. The Fed will hold a policy meeting next week. A 25 basis point rate cut itself is unlikely to trigger market fluctuations. If that is indeed the case, market participants may quickly turn their attention to Fed Chairman Powell's press conference and the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), particularly the new "dot plot." Here are the key points the market will focus on in the coming week (all in Beijing time): Wednesday 21:45, Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision; Thursday 2:00, Fed FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic outlook summary; Thursday 2:30, Fed Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference; Thursday 19:00, Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes; Friday TBD, Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision; Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo holds a monetary policy press conference.