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Economists: U.S. employment data may face major downward revisions again, which could stimulate rate cut bets.
On September 8, during the year ending in March this year, U.S. job growth may be far less robust than the strong figures currently reported by the government, highlighting that the U.S. labor market had already entered a slowdown phase before the recruitment slowdown this summer. Economists from Wells Fargo, Lianxin Company, and Pantheon Macroeconomics expect that the non-farm annual benchmark revision data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday will show that employment in March was nearly 800,000 less than currently estimated, or about 67,000 fewer jobs per month on average. Nomura Securities, Bank of America, and Royal Bank of Canada stated that the downward revision could even approach 1 million. Although this data is somewhat outdated, a significant downward revision would indicate that the momentum of the labor market last year has greatly weakened and would reinforce market expectations for the Fed to implement a series of rate cuts. A significant second consecutive year of employment data revision could also provoke anger from U.S. President Trump, who has criticized the accuracy of the Labor Statistics data. (Jin10)