Is Ethereum’s Future Worth Anticipating? A Battle for Value Reawakening After Being Wrongly Judged 1. The Wrongly Killed Crypto Blue Chip On May 1st, Ethereum (ETH) saw a strong rebound after briefly dipping to $1,760, with an intraday volatility of 12%. On-chain data revealed that whale addresses accumulated over 400,000 ETH that same day. At the same time, a report from Fidelity Digital Assets noted that ETH's MVRV-Z Score fell to -0.18, placing it in the “severely undervalued” zone. Meanwhile, active addresses in Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem surged past 13.6 million — an all-time high. This deep dislocation between technology and market valuation is pushing the battle for public chain dominance to its climax. --- 2. Technological Revolution: L1 Awakening and L2 Resonance EIP-9698: A Desperate Counterattack on the Mainnet Ethereum core researcher Dankrad Feist proposed EIP-9698 to raise the Gas limit from 36 million to 3.6 billion over four years, boosting L1’s theoretical TPS to 2000 — surpassing Solana: 2025–2026: Gas limit increases tenfold to 360 million, raising single block capacity from 180 to 6,000 transactions; 2027–2028: Another tenfold increase, with a client voting mechanism to minimize hard fork risks. If implemented, this will slash Ethereum mainnet transaction fees by 90%, opening the door for high-frequency DApp development. Layer 2: The Rise of an Invisible Empire While the market focuses on mainnet upgrades, Ethereum’s Layer 2 is building an “invisible empire”: User Scale: Leading L2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism now serve over 5.8 million weekly active addresses, accounting for 58% of all DeFi trading volume; Capital Inflow: Institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are deploying real-world assets (RWA) on L2s, with monthly TVL rising 37% to $48 billion; Tech Integration: Uniswap V4 launched on Base, combining “L2 liquidity aggregation + mainnet settlement,” reducing trading slippage to 0.05%. Fidelity estimates Ethereum’s full-stack TPS has reached 8,500 — far ahead of Solana’s 3,200. --- 3. Revaluing Ethereum: 3 Major Signals Show a Market Bottom Extremely Undervalued Metrics MVRV-Z Score: At -0.18, similar to just before the 2020 DeFi boom, suggesting a 98% chance of cycle bottom; NUPL: At zero, showing most investors are in a “capitulation phase” — just like late 2018; ETH/BTC Ratio: At a 5-year low of 0.017, despite L2 adoption surpassing Bitcoin’s by 3.2x. Institutional Underflows Are Rising ETF Holdings: BlackRock’s Ethereum Spot ETF holdings now exceed 1.2 million ETH — up 80% in 3 months; Staking Lockup: 35% of ETH is now staked on the Beacon Chain, with Lido yielding up to 5.8% annually; Derivatives Market: CME ETH futures open interest is over $8.2 billion, with 63% call options — the highest since 2023. Ongoing Ecosystem Value Capture Gas Cost Drop: After EIP-9698, mainnet gas fees are expected to fall to $0.001, driving user retention to 92%; Developer Comeback: Solidity language market share has rebounded to 68%, up 23 points from its 2024 low; Regulatory Breakthroughs: The Hong Kong SFC has approved an Ethereum staking ETF, opening a $120B channel for traditional assets. --- 4. The Path to a Comeback: Triple Resonance of Tech, Capital, and Regulation Technological Paradigm Shift Pectra Upgrade: Scheduled for May 7, will double Blob capacity to 6 — laying the groundwork for EIP-9698; RISC-V VM: A new virtual machine design from Vitalik boosts smart contract efficiency 100x and cuts ZK proof costs by 80%; Quantum Resistance: Ethereum Foundation and IBM are co-developing quantum-proof signatures, targeted for mainnet deployment in 2026. Capital Structure Transformation Institutional Rebalancing: Grayscale’s ETHE discount narrows to -3%, while BlackRock’s IBETH sees $420M net inflow in a week; Stablecoin Migration: 75% of USDC and DAI reserves now live on L2s, with daily settlements over $12B; Accelerated Deflation: EIP-9698 will push annual ETH burn to 4 million, triggering negative net supply growth. Regulatory Breakthroughs US Policy Shift: Under Trump administration pressure, SEC may soften ETH’s classification as a security; staking income tax exemption bill is underway; Hong Kong Rises: Launch of e-HKD and ETH cross-chain bridges enables atomic swaps between offshore RMB and ETH; Global Standards: IMF adopts Ethereum smart contracts as RWA issuance framework, with 46 central banks piloting cross-border ETH settlements. --- Conclusion: What’s Misunderstood Isn’t the Tech — It’s the Narrative. With technical upgrades, institutional capital, and shifting regulation all aligning, Ethereum’s revival is no coincidence. While the market hesitates, smart money is already moving. The next bull cycle’s leader? It just might be Ethereum — again.
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#以太坊未来可不可期？#
Is Ethereum’s Future Worth Anticipating? A Battle for Value Reawakening After Being Wrongly Judged
1. The Wrongly Killed Crypto Blue Chip
On May 1st, Ethereum (ETH) saw a strong rebound after briefly dipping to $1,760, with an intraday volatility of 12%. On-chain data revealed that whale addresses accumulated over 400,000 ETH that same day. At the same time, a report from Fidelity Digital Assets noted that ETH's MVRV-Z Score fell to -0.18, placing it in the “severely undervalued” zone. Meanwhile, active addresses in Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem surged past 13.6 million — an all-time high. This deep dislocation between technology and market valuation is pushing the battle for public chain dominance to its climax.
---
2. Technological Revolution: L1 Awakening and L2 Resonance
EIP-9698: A Desperate Counterattack on the Mainnet
Ethereum core researcher Dankrad Feist proposed EIP-9698 to raise the Gas limit from 36 million to 3.6 billion over four years, boosting L1’s theoretical TPS to 2000 — surpassing Solana:
2025–2026: Gas limit increases tenfold to 360 million, raising single block capacity from 180 to 6,000 transactions;
2027–2028: Another tenfold increase, with a client voting mechanism to minimize hard fork risks.
If implemented, this will slash Ethereum mainnet transaction fees by 90%, opening the door for high-frequency DApp development.
Layer 2: The Rise of an Invisible Empire
While the market focuses on mainnet upgrades, Ethereum’s Layer 2 is building an “invisible empire”:
User Scale: Leading L2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism now serve over 5.8 million weekly active addresses, accounting for 58% of all DeFi trading volume;
Capital Inflow: Institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are deploying real-world assets (RWA) on L2s, with monthly TVL rising 37% to $48 billion;
Tech Integration: Uniswap V4 launched on Base, combining “L2 liquidity aggregation + mainnet settlement,” reducing trading slippage to 0.05%.
Fidelity estimates Ethereum’s full-stack TPS has reached 8,500 — far ahead of Solana’s 3,200.
---
3. Revaluing Ethereum: 3 Major Signals Show a Market Bottom
Extremely Undervalued Metrics
MVRV-Z Score: At -0.18, similar to just before the 2020 DeFi boom, suggesting a 98% chance of cycle bottom;
NUPL: At zero, showing most investors are in a “capitulation phase” — just like late 2018;
ETH/BTC Ratio: At a 5-year low of 0.017, despite L2 adoption surpassing Bitcoin’s by 3.2x.
Institutional Underflows Are Rising
ETF Holdings: BlackRock’s Ethereum Spot ETF holdings now exceed 1.2 million ETH — up 80% in 3 months;
Staking Lockup: 35% of ETH is now staked on the Beacon Chain, with Lido yielding up to 5.8% annually;
Derivatives Market: CME ETH futures open interest is over $8.2 billion, with 63% call options — the highest since 2023.
Ongoing Ecosystem Value Capture
Gas Cost Drop: After EIP-9698, mainnet gas fees are expected to fall to $0.001, driving user retention to 92%;
Developer Comeback: Solidity language market share has rebounded to 68%, up 23 points from its 2024 low;
Regulatory Breakthroughs: The Hong Kong SFC has approved an Ethereum staking ETF, opening a $120B channel for traditional assets.
---
4. The Path to a Comeback: Triple Resonance of Tech, Capital, and Regulation
Technological Paradigm Shift
Pectra Upgrade: Scheduled for May 7, will double Blob capacity to 6 — laying the groundwork for EIP-9698;
RISC-V VM: A new virtual machine design from Vitalik boosts smart contract efficiency 100x and cuts ZK proof costs by 80%;
Quantum Resistance: Ethereum Foundation and IBM are co-developing quantum-proof signatures, targeted for mainnet deployment in 2026.
Capital Structure Transformation
Institutional Rebalancing: Grayscale’s ETHE discount narrows to -3%, while BlackRock’s IBETH sees $420M net inflow in a week;
Stablecoin Migration: 75% of USDC and DAI reserves now live on L2s, with daily settlements over $12B;
Accelerated Deflation: EIP-9698 will push annual ETH burn to 4 million, triggering negative net supply growth.
Regulatory Breakthroughs
US Policy Shift: Under Trump administration pressure, SEC may soften ETH’s classification as a security; staking income tax exemption bill is underway;
Hong Kong Rises: Launch of e-HKD and ETH cross-chain bridges enables atomic swaps between offshore RMB and ETH;
Global Standards: IMF adopts Ethereum smart contracts as RWA issuance framework, with 46 central banks piloting cross-border ETH settlements.
---
Conclusion: What’s Misunderstood Isn’t the Tech — It’s the Narrative.
With technical upgrades, institutional capital, and shifting regulation all aligning, Ethereum’s revival is no coincidence. While the market hesitates, smart money is already moving. The next bull cycle’s leader? It just might be Ethereum — again.