Who is still疯狂购入 Bitcoin?

Written by: Pzai, Foresight News

On April 24, Fidelity stated on X, "Due to purchases by public companies, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is declining. This situation is expected to accelerate in the near future." Since the U.S. elections, the loosening expectations brought by Trump for the crypto space have undoubtedly raised the market's potential outlook, with public companies having purchased nearly 350,000 Bitcoins. The market competition among exchanges, on-chain whales, and public companies is also in full swing. With the market in turmoil, where will Bitcoin head in the future? This article will analyze Bitcoin's data indicators and review market dynamics.

The current supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is 2.6 million, the lowest level since November 2018. Since November 2024, over 425,000 Bitcoins have been transferred from exchanges. An important point in this metric is in the second half of 2024, especially after Trump's victory, when there was a significant outflow, coinciding with large purchases by publicly listed companies in the U.S. This trend continues to show a downward trajectory today, reflecting that various related entities (such as listed companies) are increasing their Bitcoin reserves.

Bitcoin exchange supply trend (Source: CryptoQuant)

Since the U.S. election, publicly traded companies have increased their holdings by nearly 350,000 Bitcoins. Looking at the Bitcoin holding growth curve of the major holder Strategy, it significantly increased its holdings by 107,000 coins within two weeks starting from November 10, 2024, and continued to increase its holdings to over 531,000 coins, with an average monthly increase of 42,000 coins. Among the distribution of holdings by publicly traded companies, 8 companies hold more than 10,000 Bitcoins, and each company's holdings have maintained a growth trend in the past six months.

The mNAV (market value to holdings value ratio) of these listed companies' Bitcoin is mostly between 1.4 and 2.25. If benchmarked at a 1:1 ratio, it is expected to release liquidity of 50 billion USD to the Bitcoin market. Outside the United States, listed companies in Asia, such as Japan's Metaplanet and Hong Kong's HK Asia Holdings, are also increasing their allocations. Metaplanet's CEO Simon Gerovich has stated plans to double the company's Bitcoin holdings from 5,000 this year.

Before January 2025, the data for the spot Bitcoin ETF also coincided with the outflow from exchanges, with the highest single-day inflow reaching 18,000 Bitcoins, which to some extent promoted the surge in Bitcoin. Before the election, Strategy's average holding price was $42,000, and it subsequently continued to increase its position to $67,000, proving that the long-term value of Bitcoin is recognized by the market.

In addition, U.S. policymakers are also accelerating the compliance reserve process. According to Bitcoin Laws data, among the 27 states that have submitted Bitcoin reserve bills, three have entered the second submission phase (Arizona, New Hampshire, Texas), with Arizona already in the second review phase. On March 7, White House AI and cryptocurrency advisor David Sacks stated that President Trump has signed an executive order regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves, but only reserves that have been confiscated through criminal or civil processes.

According to on-chain data statistics, the U.S. government holds over 183,000 bitcoins, accounting for 0.92% of the existing circulating supply of bitcoins, with a current market value exceeding $16.4 billion. As state legislation gradually takes effect, this number is expected to grow further, which will also lower the threshold for U.S. companies in bitcoin reserves.

For the industry, the entry of traditional capital into the market provides a sense of stability, and since most publicly traded companies' investments in Bitcoin are above the cost line (for example, 1.4 times for Strategy and 2.78 times for Tesla), the expectations for Bitcoin investment are also relatively optimistic. With the compliance direction in the crypto space and the resolution of the "Trump Reserve," ETF inflows have also increased again, likely continuing to strengthen the buying trend of publicly traded companies.