Ethereum's Decade-long Test: Will the "Mega Pump" Come?

When successful, all chains look up to you; when defeated, even heroes fade.

Written by: Fairy, ChainCatcher

Editor: TB, ChainCatcher

This year marks the tenth anniversary of Ethereum's birth.

In the past decade, it has supported the prosperity of DeFi and ignited the wave of NFTs. Countless developers and idealists have converged, collided, and built on this chain, composing one after another crypto narrative.

But in this tenth year, Ethereum has reached a crossroads of fate. New public chains are emerging one after another, the narrative dominance is frequently slipping away, and the price is losing momentum in a prolonged adjustment.

After ten years of trials and tribulations, can Ethereum still迎来一个巨大的「泵」?

Chips are tending to concentrate, is Ethereum "changing hands"?

The notion of "switching the dealer" in Ethereum has actually been circulating since last year. Some believe that the early holders of ETH, the industry OGs, are gradually exiting the market, and their chips are quietly being taken over by institutions like Wall Street. Is this transition really happening, or is it just a story we tell ourselves?

According to on-chain analyst @Murphychen888, the Herfindahl index of ETH (which measures the concentration of holdings) has been continuously declining since 2016, indicating that holdings are being dispersed towards retail investors. It reached a bottom in March 2023, but suddenly increased starting in December 2024, suggesting that funds are being concentrated again. Whether through active accumulation or passive replenishment, the actions of whales are driving up the concentration.

Ethereum Herfindahl Index: This refers to the concentration of chips. A high index indicates that a few large holders are dominating the market, while a low index indicates a more even distribution of chips.

However, this is an extremely slow process, as some large holders are still continuing to sell off, reducing the concentration trend. Although this increase in concentration is beneficial for the future price trend, the process is slow and may be a long and torturous wait for market participants.

In addition, according to glassnode data, the "faithful buyers" RSI (Relative Strength Index) of ETH has consistently remained around 80 since the end of March, while the losses of sellers quickly cooled down after peaking in mid-April. This indicates that despite a significant price correction at one point, there are still steadfast buyers continuing to take over, which has not stopped since March 26.

RSI is used to measure market overbought or oversold conditions. It ranges from 0 to 100. Typically, RSI > 70 indicates overbought, and RSI < 30 indicates oversold

Whether Ethereum is really "changing hands" is still inconclusive, but on-chain data shows a trend of chips being re-concentrated, which may hide the long-term layout of large funds and the steadfastness of faith buyers.

Ethereum "Heart Swap" Proposal: Execution Layer Expected to Undergo Major Upgrade

On April 20, Vitalik released a significant proposal to replace the current Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) with the open-source instruction set architecture RISC-V as the long-term evolution direction for the Ethereum Layer 1 execution layer.

According to the design, existing EVM contracts will continue to operate and achieve bidirectional compatibility with the new architecture. Core abstractions such as account models, cross-contract calls, and storage will be fully retained. The original opcodes such as SLOAD, SSTORE, BALANCE, CALL, etc., will be mapped to RISC-V system calls. The new architecture supports writing contracts in languages like Rust while also being compatible with existing languages like Solidity and Vyper, ensuring that the developer experience is largely unaffected.

If this direction materializes, it will fundamentally change the way Ethereum smart contracts operate and lay a technological foundation for its scalability in the coming decades. Crypto KOL Dayu pointed out that if the proposal succeeds, the speed of the Ethereum mainnet could be increased by 100 times, and transaction fees could be reduced by more than 1000 times. The value of Layer 2 may decline, and Ethereum will directly challenge high-speed public chains such as Solana and Sui, leveraging the advantages of decentralization and ecological accumulation to soar with the wings of speed.

Despite the fact that the proposal currently faces risks such as community opposition, its emergence has sent a strong signal: Ethereum is refocusing on the value of its mainnet. As community user @shmula commented, Vitalik's proposals have historically left Ethereum Layer 1 "abandoned," but this proposal is expected to reinject value into it.

The "Default Choice" of Traditional Finance?

Traditional institutions also seem to favor Ethereum. One of the world's largest custodial banks, BNY Mellon, recently launched an on-chain data tool, Digital Asset Data Insights, on Ethereum, while BlackRock's tokenized fund BUIDL has also deployed over $2.3 billion in funds on Ethereum.

Data: Defillama, BUIDL each chain fund distribution

Does this mean that traditional institutions are actively reaching out to the Ethereum ecosystem and starting to experiment around its security, transparency, and composability? Crypto KOL Blue Fox also proposed a forward-looking idea: will large financial institutions build exclusive L2s or private chains on top of the Ethereum security layer in the future?

The views of LXDAO founder brucexu.eth may provide us with some insights. He stated that some Hong Kong financial institutions and asset on-chain projects he has recently come into contact with generally choose Ethereum as the underlying platform, because at this stage, it is almost the only preferred option. He pointed out: "In terms of functionality, Bitcoin lacks flexible scalability; in terms of stability and neutrality, financial institutions cannot accept public chains that may be subject to state intervention or face the risk of downtime; while emerging blockchains have not yet been tested for time and security, their maturity still needs to be verified."

These early actions may just be a prologue. However, in the short term, whether Ethereum can realize value redemption is very important for the explosion of the application layer.

Looking up at the myriad of chains, or is the hero just aging?

Since the Ethereum Foundation replaced its core team in February this year, and with the recent proposal to support the RISC-V virtual machine, Ethereum has been showing a posture of "proactive correction." Tomasz K. Stańczak, Executive Director of the Ethereum Foundation, recently admitted that Ethereum's "secondary goal" is to become the preferred infrastructure for institutions, winning markets such as RWA and stablecoins.

The various trends are not pessimistic, and even on the technical side, signs of a turnaround are emerging. According to Trend Research analysis, ETH is at a critical position for support and resistance exchange; if it breaks through, a favorable trend reversal may occur. ETH has experienced a long decline for 5 months from December 2024 to the present, with the number of profitable addresses dropping to a lower level in the bear market, remaining oversold. Currently, alongside the recovery of the cryptocurrency market, it has entered a critical support and resistance exchange range.

Profit Address Data

Trend Research points out that multiple technical indicators are also releasing potential bottoming signals. The K-line pattern of ETH, moving averages, MACD, Momentum, RSI, and MFI, among other indicators, all suggest the possibility of a bullish-bearish turning point in the short term. The current price is also approaching the upper edge of the downward channel and horizontal resistance level, attempting to break through.

Ethereum seems to be entering its "critical window period", but as the Chinese saying goes, "Before considering victory, one must first consider defeat". Even if the situation shows a glimmer of hope, one cannot help but ask: if ultimately the efforts fail, what then? If these efforts still struggle to break through performance bottlenecks, if ecological development stagnates, or if price confidence is not restored, will Ethereum become the "doomsday chariot" of the new era?

Ten years is not only a milestone in time but also a test of faith. The wheels of the era roll forward relentlessly; in success, countless chains look up in admiration, while in failure, heroes fade away.