Is the price of Bitcoin about to crash again?

Bitcoin price recovered 14.6% after falling below 75,000 dollars for the first time in five months in April. However, the price's inability to decisively break through the resistance level of 85,000 dollars has raised concerns that the current recovery is a bull trap.

Daily BTC Price Chart | Source: TradingView## The surge in gold could push Bitcoin below 50,000 dollars

Bitcoin may continue to perform poorly as the global trade war intensifies, causing investors to shift toward safer assets like gold, according to Mike McGlone – Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg.

McGlone believes that risky assets are showing signs of returning to the long-term average, primarily the 200-week moving average (MA) that has previously acted as an important support level during major corrections.

Bitcoin and S&P 500 weekly | Source: Mike McGloneAs of April 20, the 200-week MA of Bitcoin is around $46,300, which is 42% lower than the current price of about $84,500.

Meanwhile, gold prices have surged to a record high of $3,115 per ounce in April, up more than 19% since the beginning of the year. This precious metal continues to attract capital flows amid escalating geopolitical tensions, concerns about recession, and inflation risks caused by tariffs.

XAU and BTC from the beginning of the year until now | Source: TradingView According to McGlone, the flow of money shifting into assets with limited supply such as gold and out of highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies reflects a classic trend: money is seeking a safe haven.

The divergence between gold and Bitcoin is clearly reflected in institutional investment trends.

For example, gold-backed ETFs continuously recorded inflows in 2025, attracting more than $27.1 billion since the beginning of the year, according to data from the World Gold Council (World Gold Council).

Comparison of gold and Bitcoin ETFs from the beginning of the year to now | Source: World Gold Council, GlassnodeConversely, according to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows amounting to 12.38 billion dollars.

However, not all analysts believe that the rise of gold will last. Veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed out the risk of a "recession peak" for gold, warning that such rapid price increases often end with strong reversals — although pinpointing the exact timing of the peak is very risky.

Some people believe that if the upward momentum of gold weakens, Bitcoin may continue its price increase cycle, based on history which has followed strong surges of gold a few months later.

Source: Lawrence Lepard## Unrealized losses of Bitcoin indicate early-stage bear market risks

Data from Glassnode shows a growing divergence between short-term and long-term Bitcoin holders, suggesting the potential emergence of conditions for an early-stage bear market, although no confirmed collapse has occurred.

Notably, short-term holders (STH) – those who have bought Bitcoin in recent months are facing significant unrealized losses due to the current price fall.

The percentage of unrealized losses of STH Bitcoin | Source: GlassnodeWhen normalized by the rate of decline, this loss is equivalent to the early stages of previous bear markets, including late 2018 and early 2022.

On the contrary, long-term holder (LTH) – those who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days are generally still in profit.

The percentage chart of unrealized losses of STH compared to LTH | Source: GlassnodeHowever, data shows that risks are increasing: as buyers at recent peaks begin to qualify as LTH, unrealized losses may shift to this group. Historically, most transfers of loss burden have occurred before the market enters a bear phase.

Therefore, the risk lies in whether the profits of the LTH group can withstand the prolonged weakness of the market — or will they give up just like in previous downtrends.

Currently, caution is necessary, but this data has not yet confirmed any clear collapse.

PlanB**:** Bitcoin is still in a bull market

Some analysts view the current pullback as just a normal correction in the broader uptrend. Among them is the anonymous analyst PlanB, who believes that Bitcoin is still maintaining its bullish structure.

Based on the Stock-to-Flow model (S2F) and the 200-week MA, PlanB believes that the current price action of Bitcoin resembles the accumulation phases in the past — which often occur before entering strong rallies.

Comparison chart of Bitcoin's 200-week MA and the 200-week geometric mean | Source: PlanBSpecifically, previous cycles have shown that when the 200-week SMA (black line) converges with the 200-week geometric mean (gray line), Bitcoin tends to surge shortly thereafter. This convergence is happening again in April.

PlanB also emphasizes the red dot phase — representing the period from 6 months before halving to 18 months after halving — as a historical phase that tends to see price increases. Bitcoin is currently in the seventh month of this phase, and in previous cycles, this phase has consistently produced strong price fluctuations.

Source: PlanB "On-chain indicators still point to a bull market," PlanB noted, suggesting that the recent fall may be a stepping stone for the next rise above the resistance level of 100,000 dollars instead of a collapse into a bear market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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