Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, recently stated that despite the dismal performance of cryptocurrencies in the first quarter, he is optimistic about the cryptocurrency market in the second quarter of 2025. Four major factors were noted that could drive price increases in the second quarter. (Synopsis: White House digital asset official: The United States may use tariff revenues to buy bitcoin with all its might!) (Background addition: not only the Federal Reserve, but also the asset scale of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is also affecting the future trend of Bitcoin? The first quarter of 2025 has just ended, and cryptocurrencies have also performed rather bleakly amid Trump's tariffs that have shaken global markets. According to CoinGlass statistics, in Q1 of this year, the price of Bitcoin fell by 11.82%, and Ether fell by 45.41%, both of which recorded their worst first quarter performance since 2019. U.S. stocks remain under pressure, bitcoin jumps to $85,000 On the 17th, the performance of U.S. stocks remained under pressure, investors continued to observe the progress of the trade agreement, and the four major indexes closed up and down. The Dow fell 527.16 points, or 1.33%, to close at 39,142.23 Nasdaq fell 20.71 points, or 0.13%, to close at 16,286.45 The S&P 500 edged up 7 points, or 0.13%, to close at 5,282.7 The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 24.7 points, or 0.64%, to close at 3,832.47 In terms of Bitcoin, it briefly fell below 84,000 after the opening last night, but quickly rebounded and is now challenging to stand firm at 8.5 Above $10,000, the overall performance is relatively solid. Bitwise Investment Chief: Four Factors Q2 Expected to Drive Cryptocurrencies Against this backdrop, Bitwise Investment Chief Hogan Matt Hougan said in a recent market report that he is optimistic about the cryptocurrency market in the second quarter of 2025 despite the dismal performance in the first quarter. Hogan pointed to four major factors that are likely to drive price increases in the second quarter, including: 1) an increase in the global M2 money supply; 2) the Trump administration's cryptocurrency-friendly attitude; 3) growth in stablecoin supply; 4) The impact of Trump's tariff policy on investor behavior. 1. Global M2 money supply increases Hogan pointed out that global central banks are moving from years of tightening to monetary easing, and the M2 money supply (including cash, demand deposits and savings deposits) is continuing to expand. "Historically, this environment has been particularly favorable for risky assets, especially digital assets," he said. Just yesterday (17) night, the European Central Bank also announced another interest rate cut, cutting the deposit rate by 1 yard (25 basis points ) to 2.25% as scheduled, the seventh rate cut since June last year and a new low interest rate level since the beginning of 2023. Other analysts share the same view. For example, economist Lyn Alden has previously pointed out that the price of bitcoin coincides with the global M2 money supply 83% of the time. Pav Hundal, chief analyst at Australian cryptocurrency exchange Swyftx, also said earlier that global monetary easing measures are a reliable leading indicator of rising cryptocurrency prices. If M2 growth continues in the second quarter of 2025, Bitcoin could usher in a significant rebound. 2. The Trump Administration's Cryptocurrency-Friendly Attitude Hogan highlighted the recent "wave of sweeping deregulation" in the United States as one of the positive factors for the cryptocurrency market. "It's a long-term impact, and it's just beginning," he said. Looking back at Trump's steps since taking office, Trump has now announced the establishment of a "strategic cryptocurrency reserve" including Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, etc., aiming to position the United States as the "global cryptocurrency capital." In addition, Trump's appointment of pro-crypto personalities, such as Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce) and Paul Atkins (Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission), also shows his determination to support digital assets. If the US stablecoin bill (such as the GENIUS Act) is passed in the second quarter, it may further push the price of bitcoin up. 3. Stablecoin Supply Growth Stablecoin AUM surged to an all-time high in the first quarter, which Hogan said is seen as a positive indicator of the rise in the cryptocurrency market. "The growth in stablecoin adoption will benefit related sectors, including decentralized finance (DeFi) and other cryptocurrency applications," he said. At present, the United States is promoting stablecoin legislation to help provide a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, and many analysts have pointed out that once the regulatory framework becomes clear, stablecoins may usher in a new round of growth, which will provide greater liquidity for the cryptocurrency market, including the entry of institutional-grade funds. USDT total market capitalization comes to $144.7 billion 4. The Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on Investor Behavior Hogan noted that the "geopolitical chaos" in the global economy in the first quarter of 2025, especially the tariffs imposed after Trump took office, will prompt global investors to reassess their portfolios. He believes that the economic uncertainty caused by tariffs could push up the demand for bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, has previously said that tariffs could weaken the dollar's position and create space for non-dollar assets such as bitcoin. Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy Strategy for bitcoin holdings among U.S. listed companies, also stressed that bitcoin is not affected by tariffs and is suitable as a safe-haven asset to fight inflation. Finally, Hogan also reiterated his optimistic forecast, saying that Bitcoin could rise by about 138% by the end of the year from the current level of $84,080. He said: Last December, Bitwise predicted that Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by the end of the year. I still think it's possible. Related reports BitBonds: Bitcoin + U.S. bonds, what can reshape the pattern of US finance? The Democratic Party proposed the "Clean Cloud Act" to require US bitcoin mining companies and AI computing power centers to embrace green energy: achieve zero carbon emissions by 2035 Panama City announced that it accepts BTC, ETH, USDT to pay taxes, pay fines and fees, and the government adopts bitcoin to +1 "Bitcoin has the worst Q1 performance since 2018, Bitwise investment long: four major driving forces will help cryptocurrencies rebound in Q2" This article was first published in BlockTempo The most influential blockchain news media.
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Bitcoin has its worst Q1 performance since 2018, Bitwise invests long: Four driving forces will help cryptocurrencies rebound in Q2
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, recently stated that despite the dismal performance of cryptocurrencies in the first quarter, he is optimistic about the cryptocurrency market in the second quarter of 2025. Four major factors were noted that could drive price increases in the second quarter. (Synopsis: White House digital asset official: The United States may use tariff revenues to buy bitcoin with all its might!) (Background addition: not only the Federal Reserve, but also the asset scale of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is also affecting the future trend of Bitcoin? The first quarter of 2025 has just ended, and cryptocurrencies have also performed rather bleakly amid Trump's tariffs that have shaken global markets. According to CoinGlass statistics, in Q1 of this year, the price of Bitcoin fell by 11.82%, and Ether fell by 45.41%, both of which recorded their worst first quarter performance since 2019. U.S. stocks remain under pressure, bitcoin jumps to $85,000 On the 17th, the performance of U.S. stocks remained under pressure, investors continued to observe the progress of the trade agreement, and the four major indexes closed up and down. The Dow fell 527.16 points, or 1.33%, to close at 39,142.23 Nasdaq fell 20.71 points, or 0.13%, to close at 16,286.45 The S&P 500 edged up 7 points, or 0.13%, to close at 5,282.7 The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 24.7 points, or 0.64%, to close at 3,832.47 In terms of Bitcoin, it briefly fell below 84,000 after the opening last night, but quickly rebounded and is now challenging to stand firm at 8.5 Above $10,000, the overall performance is relatively solid. Bitwise Investment Chief: Four Factors Q2 Expected to Drive Cryptocurrencies Against this backdrop, Bitwise Investment Chief Hogan Matt Hougan said in a recent market report that he is optimistic about the cryptocurrency market in the second quarter of 2025 despite the dismal performance in the first quarter. Hogan pointed to four major factors that are likely to drive price increases in the second quarter, including: 1) an increase in the global M2 money supply; 2) the Trump administration's cryptocurrency-friendly attitude; 3) growth in stablecoin supply; 4) The impact of Trump's tariff policy on investor behavior. 1. Global M2 money supply increases Hogan pointed out that global central banks are moving from years of tightening to monetary easing, and the M2 money supply (including cash, demand deposits and savings deposits) is continuing to expand. "Historically, this environment has been particularly favorable for risky assets, especially digital assets," he said. Just yesterday (17) night, the European Central Bank also announced another interest rate cut, cutting the deposit rate by 1 yard (25 basis points ) to 2.25% as scheduled, the seventh rate cut since June last year and a new low interest rate level since the beginning of 2023. Other analysts share the same view. For example, economist Lyn Alden has previously pointed out that the price of bitcoin coincides with the global M2 money supply 83% of the time. Pav Hundal, chief analyst at Australian cryptocurrency exchange Swyftx, also said earlier that global monetary easing measures are a reliable leading indicator of rising cryptocurrency prices. If M2 growth continues in the second quarter of 2025, Bitcoin could usher in a significant rebound. 2. The Trump Administration's Cryptocurrency-Friendly Attitude Hogan highlighted the recent "wave of sweeping deregulation" in the United States as one of the positive factors for the cryptocurrency market. "It's a long-term impact, and it's just beginning," he said. Looking back at Trump's steps since taking office, Trump has now announced the establishment of a "strategic cryptocurrency reserve" including Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, etc., aiming to position the United States as the "global cryptocurrency capital." In addition, Trump's appointment of pro-crypto personalities, such as Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce) and Paul Atkins (Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission), also shows his determination to support digital assets. If the US stablecoin bill (such as the GENIUS Act) is passed in the second quarter, it may further push the price of bitcoin up. 3. Stablecoin Supply Growth Stablecoin AUM surged to an all-time high in the first quarter, which Hogan said is seen as a positive indicator of the rise in the cryptocurrency market. "The growth in stablecoin adoption will benefit related sectors, including decentralized finance (DeFi) and other cryptocurrency applications," he said. At present, the United States is promoting stablecoin legislation to help provide a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, and many analysts have pointed out that once the regulatory framework becomes clear, stablecoins may usher in a new round of growth, which will provide greater liquidity for the cryptocurrency market, including the entry of institutional-grade funds. USDT total market capitalization comes to $144.7 billion 4. The Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on Investor Behavior Hogan noted that the "geopolitical chaos" in the global economy in the first quarter of 2025, especially the tariffs imposed after Trump took office, will prompt global investors to reassess their portfolios. He believes that the economic uncertainty caused by tariffs could push up the demand for bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, has previously said that tariffs could weaken the dollar's position and create space for non-dollar assets such as bitcoin. Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy Strategy for bitcoin holdings among U.S. listed companies, also stressed that bitcoin is not affected by tariffs and is suitable as a safe-haven asset to fight inflation. Finally, Hogan also reiterated his optimistic forecast, saying that Bitcoin could rise by about 138% by the end of the year from the current level of $84,080. He said: Last December, Bitwise predicted that Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by the end of the year. I still think it's possible. Related reports BitBonds: Bitcoin + U.S. bonds, what can reshape the pattern of US finance? The Democratic Party proposed the "Clean Cloud Act" to require US bitcoin mining companies and AI computing power centers to embrace green energy: achieve zero carbon emissions by 2035 Panama City announced that it accepts BTC, ETH, USDT to pay taxes, pay fines and fees, and the government adopts bitcoin to +1 "Bitcoin has the worst Q1 performance since 2018, Bitwise investment long: four major driving forces will help cryptocurrencies rebound in Q2" This article was first published in BlockTempo The most influential blockchain news media.