10-fold increase in 3 years! Standard Chartered's forecast: the market size of stablecoins in 2028 looks at $2 trillion

Standard Chartered's latest report predicts that the overall stablecoin market will skyrocket to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, almost 10 times the current $230 billion, and the catalyst for this wave of growth is the GENIUS Act, which is expected to be legislated in the United States this summer.

The bill, known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, was voted by the Senate Banking Committee last month and will be enacted as soon as this summer.

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of global digital asset research at Standard Chartered, noted in the report that this legislation will give the stablecoin industry a clear legal status and accelerate mainstream adoption:

**Once the bill is implemented, the overall stablecoin supply will surge from the current $230 billion to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, which is not only related to the purchase demand of US bonds, but also closely related to the hegemony of the US dollar. **

$1.6 trillion in U.S. Treasury in 4 years

Standard Chartered's analysis team estimates that if the scale of stablecoins grows as expected, just to support reserve demand, the capital demand for U.S. Treasury bills (T-Bills) in the next four years will be as high as $1.6 trillion, which is almost enough to undertake all the estimated new bond issuance during Trump's second term.

**Stablecoin issuers are likely to absorb about $400 billion in treasury bills ($400 billion per year) over the next four years, making them the largest buyers in the market. **

Circle becomes the industry standard, short-term treasury bonds will become mainstream

Analysts believe that once the bill is passed, the entire stablecoin industry (including USDT issuer Tether) will likely follow Circle's lead and allocate a large amount of reserve assets to short-term US bonds.

Standard Chartered pointed out that the GENIUS Act requires stablecoin reserve assets to be held for no more than 93 days, which means that future industry trends will favor shorter U.S. debt instruments.

The current asset allocation of USDC issuer Circle is exemplary, with up to 88% of reserve assets invested in ultra-short-term Treasuries with an average duration of only 12 days. Standard Chartered believes that in order to avoid the volatility risk caused by the Fed's interest rate decision, other issuers are likely to follow Circle's allocation strategy.

**By extrapolation, stablecoin issuers' allocation to U.S. bonds will increase from the current $150 billion to about $1.75 trillion by 2028. **

Assists: USD continues to dominate the world

The report pointed out that the sharp shift of reserve assets to US Treasuries will also further boost global demand for the US dollar, helping to consolidate the US dollar's dominance in global trade and payments. The analyst wrote:

** What the international financial community is most eager to do is to find an alternative instrument that can compete with the dollar with both flexibility and liquidity. If stablecoin innovation focuses on dollar-pegged assets, it will further strengthen the attractiveness of dollar assets. **

However, the report also warns that in the long run, if the stablecoin market evolves from "dollar dominance" to "non-dollar pegging" or "multinational currency hybridization", it may pose a potential challenge to the dollar's position.

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