(1) The latest survey released by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) on Monday showed that a growing number of economic analysts believe that the U.S. economy should avoid a recession in the coming year.
(2) According to the NABE survey, about 91% of respondents expect the U.S. to fall into a recession in the next 12 months with a 50% chance or less.
(3) This is rise from 79% in the October survey, and a far cry from the view a year ago, when most economic analysts believed that the economy would experience a recession as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat high inflation.
(4) The apparently rising optimism in the survey is in line with most of the latest economic data, including last week's consumer confidence indicator rising to a two-and-a-half-year high. In addition, inflation is falling faster than expected, and the labor market is cooling but not collapsing.
(5) Economic analysts surveyed by NABE expect corporate sales and profit margins to rise this year and say supply chain issues and labor shortages are easing, which could be positive news for the inflation outlook.
(6) In the latest survey, about 63% of respondents said there was no shortage of input materials, up from 46% three months ago, and slightly more than half said there was no labor shortage, up from 38% in the previous report. NABE said both were at one of the best levels since the start of the pandemic.
(7) According to a survey of 57 NABE members conducted from Dec. 28 to Jan. 9, interest rate hikes, heightened geopolitical instability, and cost rise pose the greatest risks to generally healthy business conditions in the new year.