Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP resistance is a bottleneck! A comprehensive analysis of the breakthrough opportunities for the three major coins.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are all showing signs of consolidation, struggling to break through key resistance. Bitcoin faces resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $115,137, Ethereum fell below $4,000 after being blocked at the daily chart resistance level of $4,232, and XRP is consolidating around $2.61 after retesting the 50-day moving average of $2.68, indicating traders' indecision.

Bitcoin struggles at 115,137 USD Fibonacci resistance

(Source: Trading View)

At the beginning of this week, the price of Bitcoin retraced and fell below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $115,137, and dipped slightly the next day, breaking below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $113,317. As of Wednesday's press time, Bitcoin was trading around $112,400, close to its upward trend line. This pullback indicates that $115,137 has become a strong resistance level in the short term, with bulls encountering significant selling pressure.

The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level is a more advanced level in technical analysis, typically used only in strong upward trends. This level represents a deep retracement of the previous downward wave, and a breakout often indicates a complete trend reversal. However, Bitcoin has encountered resistance at this level and has fallen back, showing that the market has concerns about the sustainability of the current price level, with some investors choosing to take profits at this technical position.

If Bitcoin finds support near the rising trend line, rebounds and closes above $115,137, it may continue its upward momentum towards the key psychological level of $120,000. $120,000 is an important whole number level, and breaking through it will open the way to higher prices, potentially testing previous highs or creating new highs. This kind of breakout requires strong volume confirmation and clear fundamental catalysts for support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering around the neutral level of 50, indicating indecision among traders. The RSI's oscillation near 50 signifies that the market is in a state of balance between bulls and bears, with neither clear bullish momentum nor strong bearish pressure. This neutral state often occurs during trend reversals or consolidation phases, necessitating the wait for more signals to confirm the direction.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showed a golden cross on Sunday, and this signal remains valid to date, supporting the bullish perspective. A MACD golden cross occurs when the fast line crosses above the slow line from below, which is a typical buy signal. Although the RSI shows neutral, the bullish structure of the MACD suggests that bullish momentum is accumulating, potentially preparing for the next wave of upward movement.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin continues to pull back, the decline may extend to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $106,453. This is a deeper support level and a key level that many technical analysts are watching. The 61.8% is one of the most important levels in Fibonacci retracement, known as the “golden ratio,” which often becomes a strong support or resistance in actual trading.

Bitcoin Key Technical Levels:

resistance level: 115,137 USD (78.6% Fibonacci), 120,000 USD (psychological barrier)

Current Price: 112,400 USD

Support level: ascending trend line, $113,317 (50-day EMA), $106,453 (61.8% Fibonacci)

RSI: 50 (neutral)

MACD: Golden cross valid (bullish)

Ethereum falls below 4000 USD triple resistance under pressure

(Source: Trading View)

At the beginning of this week, the price of Ether encountered resistance at the daily chart resistance level of $4,232, falling 4.66% the next day. This daily chart resistance level roughly coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,193 and the 50-day moving average at $4,115, thus forming a key resistance area. The convergence of these multiple technical factors has created a very strong resistance zone, making breakthroughs significantly more difficult. As of Wednesday's press release, the price of Ether hovered around $3,996, having fallen below the psychological barrier of $4,000.

The concept of triple resistance is very important in technical analysis. When multiple types of resistance levels (daily chart resistance, Fibonacci levels, moving averages) are concentrated in a nearby price range, that area becomes a significant technical barrier that is difficult to break through. Sellers often set large limit sell orders at these levels, while bulls need extremely strong buying power to clear these resistances. Ethereum's failure around $4,200 shows that the current buying power is still insufficient to support higher prices.

If ETH rebounds and closes above the daily resistance level of $4,232, it may continue to rise towards the next daily resistance level of $4,488. This breakout will represent Ethereum successfully clearing the triple resistance zone, significantly improving market sentiment, which may attract more buying interest. There is about a 12% upside potential from the current price to $4,488, making it attractive for short-term traders.

The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is 47, close to the neutral level of 50, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening. The RSI has fallen from a higher level to 47 but has not yet dropped below 50, which means that while selling pressure exists, it is not strong. To maintain bullish momentum, the RSI must break through the neutral level and stay above 50. However, similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum's MACD indicator also showed a golden cross on Sunday, supporting the bullish outlook.

However, if ETH continues to pull back, it may fall to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,593. This support level has the same technical significance as Bitcoin's 61.8% retracement level and is a key defense line for a deeper pullback. If this level is lost, Ethereum may enter a deeper adjustment phase.

XRP is being squeezed between the 200 daily chart moving average and the 50 daily chart moving average

(Source: Trading View)

At the beginning of this week, the price of XRP encountered resistance near the 50-day moving average at $2.68, and slightly fell the next day, touching the 200-day moving average at $2.61. As of Wednesday at the time of writing, the price of XRP is hovering around $2.60, caught between the two important moving averages. This technical position indicates that XRP is at a critical decision point; breaking through the 50-day moving average will confirm an upward trend, while falling below the 200-day moving average may trigger a deeper correction.

The 50 daily chart and 200 daily chart are the two most important moving averages in technical analysis. The 50 daily chart represents the medium-term trend, while the 200 daily chart represents the long-term trend. When the price is between the two, the market is in a transitional state, and the direction is unclear. The current position of XRP reflects the market's indecision, and traders are waiting for clearer signals to determine the direction.

If the 200-day moving average of 2.61 USD continues to act as a support level, and the closing price of XRP is above 2.68 USD, then the upward trend may extend to the next daily resistance level of 3.40 USD. This breakout would confirm that XRP has re-established an upward trend, with approximately 31% upside potential from the current price to 3.40 USD, which is an extremely attractive potential gain for XRP holders.

Similar to Bitcoin, the XRP RSI indicator shows traders are hesitant, while the MACD indicator supports a bullish perspective. This combination of a neutral RSI but bullish MACD is an interesting signal configuration that often indicates the market is brewing a directional breakout but has not yet formed a consensus. The leading nature of the MACD may suggest that bulls will eventually gain the upper hand, but confirmation from price action is needed.

On the other hand, if XRP faces a correction, it may continue to fall towards the key daily support level of $2.35. This support level is a deeper technical barrier, and if it reaches that level, market sentiment may turn cautious, making it difficult to launch a rebound in the short term.

Common Characteristics and Market Outlook of the Three Major Coins

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP currently show an astonishing similarity. They all retraced after testing key resistance levels on Monday, were in a consolidation state on Wednesday, and faced a combination of neutral RSI but MACD golden cross indicators. This synchronicity reflects the high correlation in the cryptocurrency market; when Bitcoin encounters resistance, other major coins often feel the pinch as well.

The market is currently in a state of uncertainty, reflecting that traders are waiting for new catalysts to drive the next trend. Possible catalysts include: US macroeconomic data (GDP, PCE, employment reports), Federal Reserve policy statements, changes in ETF fund flows, geopolitical events (such as the results of the Xi-Trump meeting), and significant regulatory developments. Until these catalysts become clear, the market may maintain its current range-bound oscillation pattern.

From a risk management perspective, the current technical setup suggests that traders should remain cautious. Although the MACD golden cross provides a bullish signal, the neutral RSI and the price's failure at the key resistance level indicate that the upward momentum is still insufficient. Aggressive traders can test the bulls with small long positions near the support level, but strict stop-losses must be set. Conservative investors should wait for a clear breakout of the key resistance level and confirmation of support before entering the market.