Solana (SOL) price prediction: With the approval of the ETF and multiple rebound signals established, the target price looks towards $260.

Solana (SOL) recently rebounded strongly from the lower band of the ascending channel and the 200 USD Fibonacci support area. The technical indicators show that its 20-day and 50-day EMA are forming a dynamic support cluster. This pattern is similar to the height set before the rebounds in April and July 2025, which triggered increases of 63% and 72%, respectively. Combined with the warming macro environment, rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, and the approval of the first spot Solana ETF in the U.S., SOL is expected to embark on a new journey towards the target of 260 USD.

Technical structure breakthrough imminent: Classic patterns reappearing may trigger a rise of over 40%

Key support area successfully defended

From the 3-day chart analysis, Solana has clearly rebounded from the lower band of the dominant rising parallel channel, indicating new buying interest at the structural support level. This rebound coincides precisely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (around $200), which has historically played a key pivot role in strong upward trends.

Technical indicators show positive signals:

• Moving Average System: The 20-day EMA ($203) and the 50-day EMA ($186) are beginning to converge, further strengthening the dynamic support in this area.
• Historical Reference: The current setup is highly similar to the rebound patterns in April and July 2025, which brought rises of 63% and 72%, respectively.
• Target Estimation: If history repeats itself, SOL may see a 42-45% pump, targeting $260, which coincides with the upper boundary of the channel and the 0.786 Fibonacci level (between $227 and $260).

The momentum indicator is healthy and improving.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Solana hovers around 51, indicating that momentum is in a neutral state and there is still ample room for upward movement before overbought conditions arise. This technical environment provides ideal conditions for a sustained price rise.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Convergence of Multiple Favourable Information Factors

The policy environment has turned friendly.

The broader macro environment is becoming increasingly favorable for high beta crypto assets like Solana:

• Eased Trade Relations: Optimism over the China-US trade agreement boosts market risk appetite.
• Monetary Policy Support: The Fed's interest rate cut expectations are heating up, reducing the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrencies.
• Regulatory Barrier Breakthrough: Solana and Litecoin ETF approvals signal a green light for institutional participation.

Capital rotation opportunities are emerging

These forces combined may trigger a rotation of funds from Bitcoin and Ethereum (both of which have seen significant rises this year) to large altcoins like Solana that are undervalued. The approval of ETFs is particularly important as it allows institutional investors to gain exposure without directly bearing custody risks.

On-chain data verification: Holder structure health supports continuous pump

The profit address ratio conveys a positive signal

Glassnode on-chain data shows that nearly 75% of Solana addresses are currently in profit, reflecting strong holder confidence and a healthy market structure. Such a high level of profitability historically often precedes significant pump, as the belief strengthens and selling pressure gradually decreases.

(Source: Glassnode)

Holding Behavior Analysis

Data shows that although most investors have realized unrealized gains, they are still holding positions in anticipation of further rises. This holding mentality creates a favorable environment for price increases, as the circulating supply available for sale is relatively limited.

Ecosystem Development: Dual Drivers of Technology Upgrades and Application Expansion

Network performance continues to optimize

The Solana network has significantly improved its stability and performance after undergoing multiple technical upgrades. The enhancement in transaction processing capacity and the improvement of network interruption issues have laid a technical foundation for larger-scale institutional adoption.

Developer ecosystem is active

The Solana ecosystem continues to attract a large number of developers and projects, with innovative applications emerging continuously in areas such as DeFi, NFTs, and gaming. This strengthening of the fundamentals provides substantial support for the long-term value of SOL.

Risk Factors and Key Level Analysis: Rational Perspective on Potential Volatility

downside risk management

Despite the positive technical and fundamental trends, investors still need to pay attention to the following risks:

• Support Level Defense: If the support cluster at 186-200 USD is broken, it may trigger a pullback to the 170 USD area.
• Changes in the Macroeconomic Environment: If the Fed's interest rate cut expectations fall through or trade negotiations encounter setbacks, it may affect market risk appetite.
• Competitive Pressure: The rapid development of other public chains may distract market attention.

Breakthrough Confirmation Signal

Investors can pay attention to the following key signals to confirm the establishment of an upward trend:

• Volume Confirmation: A significant increase in trading volume is required to confirm a breakout.
• Resistance Level Breakthrough: Successfully breaking through the 227 USD resistance will strengthen the upward momentum.
• Moving Average System: Short-term moving average crosses above long-term moving average forming a golden cross

Institutional Perspective: ETF Approval Opens New Channel for Capital Inflow

Significance of Product Innovation

The approval of the first Spot Solana ETF in the United States is a milestone, as it provides a compliant and convenient channel for traditional financial institutions to participate in Solana investments. This development not only brings potential new capital inflows but also enhances Solana's recognition in the traditional financial sector.

Valuation Reassessment Potential

Compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana's valuation is relatively low, and with increased institutional participation, it may welcome a value re-evaluation. The approval of ETFs provides a catalyst for this process, expected to attract more institutional funds seeking excess returns.

Conclusion

Solana is currently at a turning point where multiple favourable information from both the technical and fundamental aspects resonate. From the strong rebound at key support levels, to the positive changes in the macro environment, and the opening of institutional participation channels, all together construct a solid foundation for SOL to advance towards the target of 260 USD.

For investors, the current stage presents significant opportunities while also requiring a keen awareness of risks. Strict defense of key levels, the coordination of trading volume, and the actual implementation of macro policies will all influence the final height of this rise.

Against the backdrop of the cryptocurrency market entering a new phase, Solana is expected to play an important role in the upcoming market cycle due to its technological advantages, active ecosystem, and institutional recognition. However, the market is never short of uncertainty; maintaining rationality and effective risk control is essential for steady progress in this potential rise.