Aster Price Prediction: BNB Meme Coin Crash Likely to Fall Another 40%, Losing the 1 Dollar Threshold

Aster (ASTER) has fallen over 35% in the two weeks following a massive sell-off on the BNB Chain, currently hovering above the key support level of $1.50. Technical analysis shows that ASTER breaking below $1.72 confirmed a bearish descending triangle pattern, with a potential further drop of 35-40% to a target of $0.94 based on Fibonacci retracement levels.

The "BNB meme coin season" triggered by the policy shift of the CEX founder has ended, depleting the liquidity of high-risk tokens. The community blames CZ's public statements and policy changes for exacerbating market volatility, resulting in a big dump of BNB-related tokens by 50-90%.

Aster fell by 35% in two weeks: The winter of the BNB ecosystem has arrived

In the past two weeks, the price of Aster (ASTER) has experienced a big dump of over 35%, currently maintaining above the key support level of around $1.50. This drastic price fall is not an isolated event, but rather a reflection of the turmoil affecting the entire BNB Chain ecosystem. Multiple on-chain data indicate a higher likelihood of further price declines for ASTER in October.

· The Speculation Frenzy of BNB Chain Comes to an End

The fall of ASTER coincides with the increasing turmoil in the BNB Chain ecosystem, as traders react to what many describe as the end of the recent BNB memecoin season. The turning point came after Binance founder Zhao Changpeng was accused of triggering a market cool-down, following a series of measures he had taken that had previously fueled the speculative frenzy, but now seems to have come to an end.

In the past few months, Binance has actively supported memecoin trading through initiatives like Binance Wallet, Binance Alpha, and promotional activities encouraging community-driven token creation. These efforts have propelled BNB to an all-time high, briefly surpassing Tether's USDT stablecoin to become the third-largest crypto asset, with a year-to-date increase of 72%. However, after BNB reached its peak, traders began to lock in profits and withdraw liquidity from higher-risk tokens.

· Aster as a double-edged sword of high-leverage platforms

CZ's influence has also extended to platforms like Aster, which have gained fame by offering high-leverage futures and minimal KYC barriers. These characteristics attract aggressive traders seeking quick profits in the memecoin space. During the bull market phase, this positioning brought significant trading volume and user growth to Aster, and the token price rose accordingly.

However, when market sentiment turns, this high-risk characteristic becomes a double-edged sword. As speculative capital exits the BNB Chain ecosystem, the fall of Aster reflects the widespread loss of high-risk assets. Those traders who once flocked in due to high leverage and low barriers are now withdrawing just as quickly, exacerbating the dumping pressure on the ASTER token.

CZ Policy Turnaround: From Promoter to Terminator

The community has reacted strongly to CZ's recent actions, with many believing that these policy changes are negative news for the memecoin industry. They accuse him of exacerbating market volatility with his public statements and policy shifts, which have led to a big dump of BNB-related tokens by 50-90%.

· CZ's Controversial Action Timeline

A Twitter user summarized a series of actions by CZ: "CZ might really be the GOAT. Vampire HL and Aster. Start meme szn and increase crime coins. List the most popular BNB memes on Binance. Launch his own launchpad on Binance Alpha. All leverage of meme criminals on the Binance liquidation chain. Mandatory KYC to enter the launchpad. Draw coins on it. GG Chinese."

This sharp comment reflects the disappointment of the community. CZ initially actively promoted the memecoin craze through various policies, attracting a large amount of speculative funds into the BNB ecosystem. Then, after the market reached its peak, he suddenly shifted to a stricter regulatory stance, including mandatory KYC, liquidating high-leverage positions, and withdrawing liquidity. This abrupt policy shift caught many investors off guard, resulting in significant losses.

· The Anger and Helplessness of the Community

Another user even posted saying "send CZ back to prison". Although such extreme remarks are made in jest, they reflect the community's strong dissatisfaction with CZ manipulating the market. Many investors believe that CZ has used his influence in the crypto industry to first incite a speculative frenzy, and then cash out at high levels while taking measures to suppress the market. This behavior harms the interests of retail investors.

However, there are also voices that believe CZ's policy shift is due to compliance considerations. As global regulators strengthen their scrutiny of the crypto market, Binance may have to adopt stricter KYC and risk control measures. But regardless of the motivation, the timing and manner of these policy changes have indeed had a significant impact on the market.

· Collective Collapse of BNB-Linked Tokens

Currently, BNB associated tokens are experiencing a big dump of 50-90%, which is not just a normal market adjustment, but rather a systemic liquidity crisis. When hot money withdraws, those memecoins lacking practical applications and intrinsic value are the first to suffer. Although Aster is not a pure memecoin, as a platform serving memecoin traders, its token price is highly correlated with the speculative frenzy of the BNB ecosystem.

Technical Analysis: Descending Triangle Breakout Indicates Catastrophic Fall

(Source: Trading View)

After breaking through the months-long descending triangle pattern, ASTER has entered a critical phase, suggesting that the token may face greater losses in the short term.

· Descending Triangle Pattern Analysis

When ASTER fell below the support level of the downtrend line near $1.72, a breakout occurred, confirming the bearish continuation pattern that usually precedes a big dump. The descending triangle is a classic Technical Analysis pattern composed of a horizontal support line and a downward sloping resistance line. In this pattern, the price repeatedly tests the support level, but each rebound's high point is getting lower, indicating that the buying pressure is gradually weakening.

Once the price falls below the support level, it usually triggers an accelerated decline because: the breakthrough of the support level will trigger stop-loss orders, increasing selling pressure; after the pattern confirmation, it will attract technical traders to short; psychological support collapse leads to panic dumping. ASTER breaking below the support line of $1.72 is precisely the signal for this pattern confirmation.

· Target Price Calculation of Fibonacci Retracement Levels

According to the Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous round of rebound, Aster's next downward target is around $0.94, in line with the 0.618 Fibonacci line, where prices typically remain stable before finding new demand. If the bearish momentum continues, it may further drop by 35-40%.

Fibonacci retracement is a commonly used tool in Technical Analysis, based on the proportional relationships of the Fibonacci sequence (0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786) to predict potential support levels for price pullbacks. The 0.618 level (also known as the golden ratio) is often regarded as a strong support/resistance level, and many traders set buy or sell orders at this position.

A drop from the current price of 1.50 USD to 0.94 USD signifies a fall of about 37%, which aligns with the projected decline of 35-40%. This target price is not a random guess, but rather a mathematical calculation based on historical price behavior and technical patterns.

· Defense battle at the key support level of 1.50 USD

However, bulls still have a chance to defend the key 1.50 USD support level, which triggered a false rebound at the end of September. A strong rebound here could push the price up to 1.72 USD (currently turned into a resistance level), and may even push it up to 1.85 USD (which is the 0.236 Fibonacci level).

1.50 dollars is important because it is a psychological round number and also a support level that has been tested multiple times in the past. If this level can hold, it may attract investors looking to buy on dips, leading to a short-term rebound. However, it is important to note that the rebound at the end of September was described as a "false rebound," meaning it did not have lasting strength and was quickly pushed back down by selling pressure.

Unless ASTER reclaims the upper boundary of its descending triangle, the overall trend remains bearish, and downward pressure may persist in the short term until $0.94. To truly reverse the bearish trend, ASTER needs to break through $1.72 and hold above it, before further challenging higher resistance levels. Until then, any rebound may just be a technical correction in the midst of the decline.

Three Scenarios for Aster Price Prediction

Based on the current technical and fundamental analysis, we can outline three possible scenarios for Aster's future price trends.

· Basic Scenario: Continue to fall to 0.94 USD (Probability 60%)

In this most likely scenario, ASTER fails to hold the $1.50 support level and continues to fall according to the logic of the descending triangle breakout. The target of $0.94 will be reached in the coming weeks, with a drop of about 37%. The logical supports for this scenario include: the end of the BNB memecoin craze is a structural change, not a short-term fluctuation; CZ's policy shift is unlikely to reverse in the short term; technical patterns usually complete the expected drop after confirmation; market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, lacking buying support.

· Optimistic Scenario: Rebound from $1.50 to $1.85 (Probability 25%)

In this context, the support level at 1.50 USD held successfully, attracting a large amount of buying on dips, pushing the price to rebound to the 1.72-1.85 USD range. This requires the following conditions: unexpected positive news for the BNB ecosystem (such as new incentive programs, major collaborations, etc.); the Aster platform launching significant features or partnerships; a strong rebound in the overall cryptocurrency market, driving high-risk assets; large amounts of capital entering the market to buy the dip, changing market expectations.

However, even if such a rebound occurs, it is likely to be temporary, as the overall trend remains bearish. After the rebound, it may again face dumping pressure.

· Disaster Scenario: Fall below 0.94 USD entering a deep bear market (Probability 15%)

In the worst-case scenario, even reaching $0.94 without any effective support, ASTER continues to fall into a deeper price range. This may be triggered by the following factors: significant technical issues or security incidents on the Aster platform; regulatory actions against high-leverage trading platforms; a systemic crisis in the BNB ecosystem; the overall crypto market entering a bear market, causing a collapse of all risk assets.

In this context, ASTER may return to $0.50 or even lower, which is equivalent to a fall of 60-70% from the current price.

How should investors respond to Aster price predictions

In the face of such pessimistic technical and fundamental aspects, what strategy should investors and traders of Aster adopt?

· Holder's Risk Management

If you currently hold ASTER, you need to seriously assess your risk tolerance. Technical Analysis indicates a high likelihood of a further fall of 35-40%, which means your position could incur additional losses. Consider setting a stop-loss level around $1.45, and if it falls below this level, exit to avoid greater losses. If you believe in Aster's long-term value, you might consider gradually increasing your position around $0.94, but be mentally prepared that this level may not be the bottom.

· Potential Buyer Entry Timing

If you are interested in Aster but currently do not hold a position, it is not advisable to enter at the current price. Wait for the price to fall to around $0.94 and observe if there are clear reversal signals (such as a significant increase in trading volume, price stabilizing at the support level, etc.). Even when near the target level, accumulate positions in batches and do not invest all your funds at once, as the price may continue to fall.

· Strategies for Short-Term Traders

For short-term traders, the current downtrend provides shorting opportunities. Shorts can be initiated on rebounds, with a target set at $0.94. However, it is important to set strict stop-losses, as a strong rebound could occur if the $1.50 support holds, potentially leading to losses on short positions. At the same time, keep an eye on the latest developments in the BNB ecosystem, as any significant policy changes from CZ or Binance could quickly change market sentiment.

Aster Long-term Outlook: Surpassing Short-term Price Fluctuations

Although the short-term technical analysis is very pessimistic, when evaluating Aster, we should not only look at the price trend but also consider its long-term value proposition.

· Aster's Core Competitiveness

Aster, as a decentralized derivatives trading platform, has certain technical advantages. High leverage trading features, low latency execution, and a user-friendly interface are characteristics that can attract a large number of traders during a bull market. If the overall crypto market enters the next bull market cycle, Aster has the opportunity to become a popular trading platform once again.

However, regulatory risk is a long-standing unresolved issue. With global regulatory agencies intensifying scrutiny on crypto derivatives trading, platforms offering high leverage and low KYC thresholds may face greater pressure. Aster needs to find a balance between maintaining user experience and meeting compliance requirements.

· The uncertainty of the future of the BNB ecosystem

The fate of Aster is highly related to the BNB Chain ecosystem. If the BNB ecosystem can overcome its current difficulties and find new growth points, Aster will also benefit. However, if CZ and Binance continue to adopt policies to suppress speculation, or if the regulatory environment tightens further, the entire ecosystem may fall into a prolonged slump.

Investors need to closely monitor the development direction of the BNB Chain, including new DeFi projects, games and NFT applications, and integration with traditional finance. Only with the overall prosperity of the ecosystem, will AST have the space for sustainable development.