Fed rate cut eve: Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange inflows decrease; stablecoin accumulation vs altcoin volatility

As expectations of a Fed rate cut warm up, CryptoQuant's on-chain data shows a dichotomy in the crypto market: the inflow of Bitcoin and Ethereum to exchanges has hit a one-year and two-month low respectively, indicating a strong reluctance to sell among Large Investors; meanwhile, net deposits of stablecoins (especially USDT) have surged to a year-to-date high, suggesting that investors are hoarding "bullets" in preparation to buy the dip; at the same time, the inflow of alts has risen against the trend, reflecting a shift in risk appetite or profit-taking demand. Changes in the market liquidity structure suggest that investors are preparing for a macro shift, and the Fed's decisions will be a key catalyst for the next stage of the trend.

Bitcoin inflow declines

The inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges has dropped to its lowest level in over a year. Its 7-day moving average is currently 25,000 BTC, down from the 51,000 BTC recorded in July. Meanwhile, the average deposit size per transaction has halved, from 1.14 BTC in mid-July to just 0.57 BTC in September. CryptoQuant analysts indicate that this suggests the selling pressure from Large Investors has lessened, and long-term investors have little willingness to exit their positions before the Fed makes a decision.

Ethereum trend is similar

Ethereum is mimicking Bitcoin's sluggish exchange activity. ETH Inflows have dropped to a two-month low, with the 7-day average falling to 783,000 ETH, compared to 1.8 million ETH in mid-August. The size of deposits is also shrinking, with the average transaction size dropping from earlier peaks of 40-45 ETH to around 30 ETH currently. In summary, this trend reflects weak seller activity, echoing Bitcoin's low inflows, and reinforces the view that investors are reluctant to liquidate major holdings ahead of a potential macro shift.

Surge in stablecoin deposits

In contrast, the inflow of stablecoins is surging, especially USDT. The net deposits on August 31 reached $379 million, the highest level of the year, before falling back to around $200 million recently. Even so, the daily average deposit amount of USDT has more than doubled, rising from $63,000 in July to the current $130,000. This sharp rise indicates that investors are actively transferring liquidity to exchanges, ready to quickly deploy capital when favorable results from the Fed trigger a rebound.

Alts Activity Warming Up

Altcoins are reversing the overall trend of slowing inflows. The trading deposits of a series of non-BTC and ETH tokens have risen to 55,000 (7-day total), while this number remained stable between 20,000-30,000 in May and June. CryptoQuant analysts noted that this growth may reflect increased selling pressure from investors rotating out of higher-risk assets, or conversely, it may indicate growing speculative interest in high-beta tokens ahead of potential macro catalysts.

Future Outlook

The upcoming announcement from the Fed will test these liquidity patterns. The decrease in inflows of Bitcoin and Ethereum indicates the conviction of long-term holders, while the increase in stablecoin deposits shows the market's desire to react quickly. Whether this shift favors blue-chip crypto assets or speculative alts will largely depend on the Fed's next move.

Conclusion

On-chain data is like a prism, refracting the market's complex expectations of Fed policy — the depletion of inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum highlights the steadfast belief of long-term holders, while the reservoir effect of stablecoins emphasizes that off-market funds are on high alert, and the activity of alts continues the never-ending speculative pulse of the crypto market. If the Fed signals a dovish stance, the accumulated liquidity of stablecoins may first flow into blue-chip assets; if expectations are not met, alts may face more severe selling pressure. Behind this liquidity rebalancing is not only a game between institutions and retail investors but also a deep coupling of macro policy and the crypto ecosystem.