Dogecoin ETF: A Trigger for Massive Growth or the Path to a Brutal Reversal?

Dogecoin traders are bracing for a potential turning point. The anticipated DOGE ETF is dividing the community: some see it as the start of another historic rally, while others warn of overheating and a sharp correction.

ETF: Opportunity and Risk Optimists recall 2021, when DOGE skyrocketed thanks to memes and Elon Musk’s tweets. Back then, the token’s value surged by over 1,500% in just six months, leaving most holders in profit. Skeptics, however, point out that today’s market faces rising funding rates and valuations detached from network utility. They argue that while an ETF launch could spark quick gains, it might also trigger steep corrections.

Lessons from history: from euphoria to collapse The 2021 cycle ended harshly for DOGE – in the months that followed, it lost nearly all its gains and plunged to $0.13, where it stagnated for an extended period. This demonstrated how fragile growth can be when driven purely by hype and sentiment. Today, conditions are different. The 30-day DOGE funding rate hovers around -0.68, signaling trader caution and less market overheating compared to the past.

Growing tension: volatility ahead Open interest (OI) on Dogecoin has reached $4.6 billion, a three-month high and an increase of $1 billion in just a week. This highlights intense positioning ahead of a potential major move. Still, indicators suggest the market is not yet overheated:

🔹 RSI remains below 70

🔹 NVT stands at 14, far below the 25+ levels that previously preceded market tops Network activity is still supporting the price, reducing the risk of cascading long squeezes.

The key level: $0.25 On the daily chart, DOGE is approaching resistance around $0.25 – a level it has failed to break several times this year. If it succeeds, the ETF could serve as a catalyst and open the door to further upside. Traders are entering positions more cautiously than in 2021. This cycle appears “cleaner,” with less market excess, increasing the odds that any breakout will have a more sustainable foundation.

Conclusion Dogecoin stands at a crossroads. The ETF could ignite a new bullish wave, but it also carries the risk of a brutal reversal. The outcome will hinge on whether DOGE can break through the $0.25 barrier and maintain healthy market momentum.

#DOGE , #etf , #Dogecoin‬⁩ , #memecoin , #CryptoNews

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