Here’s the EXACT Reason Why Altseason Is About to Begin, but There’s a Catch for ETH and BTC Traders

Crypto analyst Rekt Fencer tweeted that altcoins are now “more oversold than during COVID, the FTX crash, and the tariff war.” He backed this claim with a chart comparing altcoin performance against Ethereum, showing extreme oversold conditions and potential upside of over 130% if history repeats.

What the Chart Shows

The chart compares the OTHERS/ETH ratio on a two-week timeframe, with highlighted zones marking past oversold levels.

In 2021, altcoins surged 166% from similar conditions.

In 2023, they rallied again, this time by 125%.

Today, the chart suggests a possible 132% move ahead, based on the same indicator flashing oversold signals.

The lower panel shows an oscillator that has bottomed three times at similar levels – each time preceding a sharp altcoin recovery against ETH. Fencer interprets this as evidence that altcoins are in the “final shakeout” stage before altseason begins.

THIS IS THE FINAL SHAKEOUT FOR ALTCOINSAlts are more OVERSOLD than during:COVIDFTX CrashTariff WarNo one believes anymoreThat’s exactly why the altseason is coming pic.twitter.com/7VTU742qmU

— Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) September 6, 2025

Why Some Analysts Remain Skeptical

While the oversold signal is compelling, relying only on these indicators has its risks. Altcoin recoveries in the past were not driven by technicals alone – they aligned with broader shifts in ETH and BTC dominance, as well as liquidity trends in the crypto market.

At present, BTC dominance remains stable just below 60%, which is still historically high. A sharp slide in Bitcoin dominance has often preceded altseasons, but we haven’t seen that yet.

Meanwhile, ETH dominance is slightly under 14%. For context, ETH dominance peaked near 15% in August during its recent rally, and historically altseasons have kicked off when ETH dominance climbs closer to 16%. This suggests the conditions may not be fully aligned for a broad altcoin breakout just yet.

Read also: Not Altseason, We Are in Ethereum Season – Here’s Why!

Opinion: The Signal Isn’t Enough

Rekt Fencer’s optimism is understandable – oversold conditions often do create attractive entry points. But the crypto market is far more complex than one chart. Liquidity flows, ETF-driven capital rotation, and macroeconomic events could easily delay or mute any altcoin rally.

For now, the data shows that altcoins may be due for a bounce. But to call this the “final shakeout” might be premature unless BTC dominance breaks down further and ETH regains strength above 15–16% dominance. Until then, altseason remains a possibility – not a certainty.

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The post Here’s the EXACT Reason Why Altseason Is About to Begin, But There’s a Catch for ETH and BTC Traders appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.