What does the daily favourable information have to do with you?

Recent news has been getting more and more lively: Fed interest rate cut expectations, discussions in the U.S. stock market about crypto regulation, pro buying Ether, and calls for Bitcoin to reach a million dollars at conferences. It seems like the crypto market is entering a "golden age." However, looking at the market, mainstream tokens are only experiencing narrow fluctuations, and alts are facing a chorus of falls. Why?

1. The news is loud, but the demand is weak

Don't be fooled by the good news coming one after another, but the actual impact is far less than imagined.

Example: Foton Holdings' on-chain bond issuance and Fosun's tokenization look impressive, but the trading volume of these products is almost negligible. Ordinary investors who can actually buy in are extremely rare.

Data: The first batch of stablecoin pilot licenses issued by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority this year amounts to less than $1 billion, while the global stablecoin market value has exceeded $160 billion. This small splash cannot shake the market at all.

2. Licenses and rules are not prepared for you

The implementation of the policy is indeed a positive development, but the beneficiaries do not include the majority of people.

Example: The United States' "21st Century Financial Innovation Act" clearly imposes very high capital requirements on stablecoin issuers, meaning that only giants like Circle and PayPal can afford to participate.

In comparison: Retail investors, even if they eagerly buy the so-called "compliant stablecoins", are merely users and do not have the status of "participants".

3. Elites cherish their tokens, retail investors are missing

The chip structure is the soul of the market.

Example: The Solana ecosystem has been very popular this year, but many project tokens have an actual circulation rate of less than 10%, with the vast majority held by institutions and teams, leading to significant price fluctuations.

In comparison, Bitcoin's holding distribution is clearly much higher, with the proportion of the top 100 addresses declining year by year, and retail participation supporting the underlying consensus.

4. The Logic of Price Stalemate

When the demand side is lacking and the supply side is tightly controlled, prices naturally cannot move.

Data: According to CoinShares statistics, in August, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $440 million, while ETH and altcoin ETFs almost all saw net outflows during the same period. In other words, money only flows into the top projects, while the tail-end projects are being drained.

Phenomenon: Many project teams would rather rely on selling coins to sustain themselves than dare to actively pump the price, because once the price is raised, they will face old investors cashing out and crashing the market. As a result, the market enters an awkward situation of "no one moving."

Conclusion

Every day is filled with good news, and it's lively. However, if the participation threshold remains high, liquidity remains poor, and consensus remains thin, these benefits have little to do with the majority of people.

What can truly invigorate the market is an environment where everyone can participate and trade, rather than just one or two news articles or a "symbolic buy order" from some fund.