In the past 45 days, the price of Ripple (XRP) has been under pressure, falling nearly 20%, and has repeatedly tested the key support level of 2.70 USD. The daily chart shows that XRP is still oscillating within a descending triangle pattern, with the risk of a short-term breakdown of support still present. However, multiple data points from the on-chain and derivation markets are releasing positive signals—indicating that the price may be nearing the bottom and is expected to experience a rebound of up to 85% in the fourth quarter.
Recently, XRP futures open interest has decreased from 11 billion USD to 7.5 billion USD, reflecting the exit of speculative funds. This cooling off indicates that the situation of excessive leverage in the market is easing, and the risk of prices being dragged down by large-scale forced liquidations is reduced.
At the same time, the XRP leverage ratio on large CEX platforms has returned to the annual average, and the ratio of open interest to exchange reserves is trending towards a healthy level. This indicates that traders are no longer excessively betting on one-sided market movements, leading to a more stable market structure, which lays the groundwork for a potential rebound.
On-chain data shows that the net taker volume of XRP is approaching neutral levels, while the cumulative volume delta (CVD) is on the rise, indicating that buyer strength is gradually increasing.
Although the comprehensive CVD index of the futures market continues to decline, the financing rate has returned to the quarterly average, indicating that excessively leveraged long and short positions are being liquidated. This healthy market environment is often a precursor to price stabilization and rebound.
Key technical area: $2.35–$2.65 value gap
(Source: Trading View)
From the daily chart structure, XRP is still fluctuating within a descending triangle pattern, with $2.70 being the current most important support level. Once it falls below this level, the price may test the reasonable value gap (FVG) of $2.35–$2.65.
It is worth noting that this range highly coincides with the Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 retracement levels. Such a convergence of technical levels typically strengthens support and creates conditions for a price rebound.
Fractal patterns suggest a 60–85% increase in Q4
(Source: Trading View)
The current market structure of XRP is highly similar to the fractal trend of the first quarter—when the price broke out strongly after a long period of consolidation. If history repeats itself, the increase in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 60%–85%, refreshing the yearly high.
Famous trader Javon Marks also holds the same view, pointing out: "As long as the XRP price holds the critical level of $2.47, the target of $4.80 remains valid, which means a potential upside of about 66%."
Conclusion and Strategy Recommendations
Although XRP is still under pressure from a descending triangle pattern in the short term, the cooling of the futures market, the warming of on-chain buying, and the resonance of multiple technical support are all hinting that the price may be approaching the bottom.
Short-term observation level: $2.70 support level
Potential rebound targets: $2.99 → $4.80
Risk control: If it falls below 2.35 USD, be alert for further pullback.
For medium to long-term investors, the current area may be a key moment for gradual positioning, but it requires strict position and stop-loss management.
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Is the XRP downtrend slowing? 3 big data indicators suggest it may big pump 85% to reach a new high.
In the past 45 days, the price of Ripple (XRP) has been under pressure, falling nearly 20%, and has repeatedly tested the key support level of 2.70 USD. The daily chart shows that XRP is still oscillating within a descending triangle pattern, with the risk of a short-term breakdown of support still present. However, multiple data points from the on-chain and derivation markets are releasing positive signals—indicating that the price may be nearing the bottom and is expected to experience a rebound of up to 85% in the fourth quarter.
Futures market cools down: Leverage risk significantly reduced
Recently, XRP futures open interest has decreased from 11 billion USD to 7.5 billion USD, reflecting the exit of speculative funds. This cooling off indicates that the situation of excessive leverage in the market is easing, and the risk of prices being dragged down by large-scale forced liquidations is reduced.
At the same time, the XRP leverage ratio on large CEX platforms has returned to the annual average, and the ratio of open interest to exchange reserves is trending towards a healthy level. This indicates that traders are no longer excessively betting on one-sided market movements, leading to a more stable market structure, which lays the groundwork for a potential rebound.
On-chain buying interest rebounds: CVD indicator shows accumulation signs
On-chain data shows that the net taker volume of XRP is approaching neutral levels, while the cumulative volume delta (CVD) is on the rise, indicating that buyer strength is gradually increasing.
Although the comprehensive CVD index of the futures market continues to decline, the financing rate has returned to the quarterly average, indicating that excessively leveraged long and short positions are being liquidated. This healthy market environment is often a precursor to price stabilization and rebound.
Key technical area: $2.35–$2.65 value gap
(Source: Trading View)
From the daily chart structure, XRP is still fluctuating within a descending triangle pattern, with $2.70 being the current most important support level. Once it falls below this level, the price may test the reasonable value gap (FVG) of $2.35–$2.65.
It is worth noting that this range highly coincides with the Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 retracement levels. Such a convergence of technical levels typically strengthens support and creates conditions for a price rebound.
Fractal patterns suggest a 60–85% increase in Q4
(Source: Trading View)
The current market structure of XRP is highly similar to the fractal trend of the first quarter—when the price broke out strongly after a long period of consolidation. If history repeats itself, the increase in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 60%–85%, refreshing the yearly high.
Famous trader Javon Marks also holds the same view, pointing out: "As long as the XRP price holds the critical level of $2.47, the target of $4.80 remains valid, which means a potential upside of about 66%."
Conclusion and Strategy Recommendations
Although XRP is still under pressure from a descending triangle pattern in the short term, the cooling of the futures market, the warming of on-chain buying, and the resonance of multiple technical support are all hinting that the price may be approaching the bottom.
Short-term observation level: $2.70 support level
Potential rebound targets: $2.99 → $4.80
Risk control: If it falls below 2.35 USD, be alert for further pullback.
For medium to long-term investors, the current area may be a key moment for gradual positioning, but it requires strict position and stop-loss management.