Fluctuation Warning: Tonight, the U.S. August non-farm report is coming with great impact, and the probability of the Federal Reserve (FED) lowering interest rates this month has reached 99%.
The U.S. non-farm payroll report for August is set to be released tonight, with the market focusing on employment weakness and the possibility of interest rate cuts from The Federal Reserve (FED). Investors should pay attention to short-term fluctuations. (Background: The probability of a rate cut by the FED in September has risen to 97.6%! The small non-farm ADP report was below expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields hit a new low since May.) (Supplementary background: A FED governor revealed that "inflation is high but there is room for rate cuts," and the market bets that the probability of a rate cut in September is 96.8%.) U.S. stocks rose on the 4th, buoyed by weak labor market data and increasing expectations of rate cuts, with all three major indices climbing. However, the August non-farm payroll report, which will be revealed tonight at 20:30 Taiwan time, is not only seen as the final piece in judging whether the FED will initiate a rate cut at its next meeting but could also bring a new round of fluctuations to global asset prices, so please be aware of potential risks. Employment cooling data has surfaced. The market currently estimates that the U.S. non-farm payrolls for August only increased by 75,000 people. If this holds true, it will mark the fourth consecutive month of growth below 100,000, recording the weakest employment growth trend since the pandemic. Over the past six months, the U.S. has averaged only 81,000 new jobs per month, and the data from May and June was significantly revised down by 258,000, highlighting that the job market is cooling. Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets LLC, pointed out that "companies, worried about demand and rising costs, are generally adopting a wait-and-see strategy, and the labor market is almost in a freeze." The FED stands at a policy crossroads. With employment weakness and core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) still lingering at a high of 2.8% to 2.9%, the FED faces a difficult choice. However, Chair Powell has previously expressed an open attitude towards whether to cut rates, and FED governor Christopher Waller and several officials have also shown support. Interest rate futures indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 16-17 meeting has reached 99%. However, inflation has not yet returned to the 2% target, leading to ongoing debates in decision-making circles over "first save jobs, then control prices" or "continue to wait and see." Fluctuations ahead of the report's release. If tonight's data is as weak as expected, the market script is roughly as follows: bond prices rise, yields fall; U.S. stocks rebound due to rate cut expectations, and the cryptocurrency market similarly gains support; but if employment unexpectedly improves, it could trigger a reverse trend. Historical experience shows that in the first two hours after non-farm data is released, the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and the dollar index often exceeds the average daily value by 1.5 times, and investors should be prepared for sudden fluctuations. Related reports: Looking back at history, how do FED rate cuts affect short-term trends in Bitcoin? With the rate cut gamble unresolved and whales continuing to dump, where is the market headed? Don't underestimate Trump's determination: How will the U.S. "cut rates"? Tonight, the U.S. August non-farm report hits hard; the probability of a rate cut by the FED this month has reached 99%. This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.
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Fluctuation Warning: Tonight, the U.S. August non-farm report is coming with great impact, and the probability of the Federal Reserve (FED) lowering interest rates this month has reached 99%.
The U.S. non-farm payroll report for August is set to be released tonight, with the market focusing on employment weakness and the possibility of interest rate cuts from The Federal Reserve (FED). Investors should pay attention to short-term fluctuations. (Background: The probability of a rate cut by the FED in September has risen to 97.6%! The small non-farm ADP report was below expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields hit a new low since May.) (Supplementary background: A FED governor revealed that "inflation is high but there is room for rate cuts," and the market bets that the probability of a rate cut in September is 96.8%.) U.S. stocks rose on the 4th, buoyed by weak labor market data and increasing expectations of rate cuts, with all three major indices climbing. However, the August non-farm payroll report, which will be revealed tonight at 20:30 Taiwan time, is not only seen as the final piece in judging whether the FED will initiate a rate cut at its next meeting but could also bring a new round of fluctuations to global asset prices, so please be aware of potential risks. Employment cooling data has surfaced. The market currently estimates that the U.S. non-farm payrolls for August only increased by 75,000 people. If this holds true, it will mark the fourth consecutive month of growth below 100,000, recording the weakest employment growth trend since the pandemic. Over the past six months, the U.S. has averaged only 81,000 new jobs per month, and the data from May and June was significantly revised down by 258,000, highlighting that the job market is cooling. Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets LLC, pointed out that "companies, worried about demand and rising costs, are generally adopting a wait-and-see strategy, and the labor market is almost in a freeze." The FED stands at a policy crossroads. With employment weakness and core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) still lingering at a high of 2.8% to 2.9%, the FED faces a difficult choice. However, Chair Powell has previously expressed an open attitude towards whether to cut rates, and FED governor Christopher Waller and several officials have also shown support. Interest rate futures indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 16-17 meeting has reached 99%. However, inflation has not yet returned to the 2% target, leading to ongoing debates in decision-making circles over "first save jobs, then control prices" or "continue to wait and see." Fluctuations ahead of the report's release. If tonight's data is as weak as expected, the market script is roughly as follows: bond prices rise, yields fall; U.S. stocks rebound due to rate cut expectations, and the cryptocurrency market similarly gains support; but if employment unexpectedly improves, it could trigger a reverse trend. Historical experience shows that in the first two hours after non-farm data is released, the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and the dollar index often exceeds the average daily value by 1.5 times, and investors should be prepared for sudden fluctuations. Related reports: Looking back at history, how do FED rate cuts affect short-term trends in Bitcoin? With the rate cut gamble unresolved and whales continuing to dump, where is the market headed? Don't underestimate Trump's determination: How will the U.S. "cut rates"? Tonight, the U.S. August non-farm report hits hard; the probability of a rate cut by the FED this month has reached 99%. This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.