On Thursday evening Beijing time, U.S. stocks opened slightly higher as weaker-than-expected ADP private employment data reinforced market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed later this month. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index both rose 0.2% in early trading. Meanwhile, Bitcoin entered a fragile stage after several days of selling pressure, with prices fluctuating around the $110,000 mark. Analysts pointed out that the market lacks a decisive belief in a rise, and maintaining this key support is crucial for sustaining market sentiment.
Performance of the US Stock Market
The stock market opened moderately higher on Thursday, as weaker-than-expected private employment data boosted bets that the Fed may cut interest rates later this month. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index both rose slightly by 0.2% in early trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 37 points, a gain of 0.1%, weighed down by a sharp decline in Salesforce's stock price.
Interpretation of Economic Data
The ADP report shows that private sector job growth slowed to just 54,000 in August—far below the expected 75,000, and down from the revised 106,000 in July. Weekly initial jobless claims also rose more than expected, climbing to 237,000. These data points intensified signs of a recent slowdown in the labor market, prompting traders to increase bets on a rate cut by the Fed at the September 17 meeting. According to CME's FedWatch tool, federal funds futures are currently pricing in a 97.4% probability of a rate cut, up from 96.6% the previous day.
Sector Performance Analysis
The consumer discretionary sector led the early morning gains, rising 1.49%, with Amazon's stock jumping 3.44%. Financials, utilities, and real estate sectors also showed strength. However, the technology sector fell 0.35% within minutes of the opening, weighed down by Salesforce's weakness, which also dragged down the Dow. The software giant's stock dropped nearly 8%, as its third-quarter revenue outlook was slightly below expectations, despite reporting solid second-quarter results.
Market Focus
Traders are also closely monitoring developments from Washington, where President Trump previously requested the Supreme Court to overturn a ruling that blocks key tariffs. Any unexpected developments in trade could impact the market. Attention is also turning to the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report set to be released at 10 PM Beijing time (10 AM Eastern Time). The market consensus expects a reading of 50.8, up from the previous value of 50.1. If the data falls short of expectations, it could further support the case for monetary easing.
Bitcoin Market Analysis
After several days of selling pressure and uncertainty pushing the price to fluctuate around the $110,000 level, Bitcoin is entering a fragile phase. The bulls are struggling to defend this key area, but momentum has clearly faded. The market is now in a wait-and-see mode, with investors cautiously viewing whether Bitcoin will stabilize or break down in the upcoming trading sessions.
Technical Indicator Interpretation
(Bitcoin Composite Market Index)
According to top analyst Axel Adler, the current structure of Bitcoin remains fragile, as both price and derivative funding flows are below 50, indicating that key indicators are generally weak. Adler emphasized that while a short-term rebound is possible, the market lacks the conviction required for a sustained rising trend. With active trading funding flows still negative and weak, any recovery from current levels could be a mean reversion bounce towards $113,000 (consistent with fair value and the median 30-day range), rather than the start of a new bull market phase.
Key Technical Level Analysis
Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the $110,000 to $111,000 range, showing resilience after weeks of intense selling pressure. The chart highlights how BTC has rebounded from a recent low of around $108,000, but still struggles to regain higher momentum. The 50-day moving average now acts as resistance, limiting upward attempts and reflecting weakening bullish strength.
Despite the pullback from the historical high of $123,000, the structure remains intact above the 200-day moving average (around $101,000), which has consistently served as long-term support. Current price action indicates that the market is in a balanced state: bulls are defending the demand zone, but bears are maintaining pressure as the rebound faces rejection near the $112,000 level.
The flat trajectory of the 100-day moving average reinforces the consolidation phase, indicating a need for a decisive breakout to confirm the direction. If Bitcoin closes above $113,000 in the short term, it may set up a retest of $118,000 (which has served as a mid-range level of support and resistance).
If the level of 110,000 USD cannot be held, BTC may face repeated testing of 108,000 USD and ultimately test the psychological barrier of 105,000 USD. As it stands, the fate of Bitcoin depends on whether buyers can stabilize the flow of funds and absorb the ongoing selling pressure.
Market Outlook
Weak economic data has reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for U.S. stocks, but individual stock performances (like Salesforce) can still lead to significant volatility. Market focus has now completely shifted to the non-farm payroll report, the results of which will greatly influence the Fed's decision in September. The Bitcoin market is showing a typical consolidation pattern, repeatedly testing the critical support near $110,000. Analysts' views are cautious, believing that a fundamental improvement in capital flow and price indices is needed to truly initiate a new round of rises.
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Weak ADP data boosts rate cut expectations, S&P 500 opens higher; Bitcoin holds the key support at $110,000.
On Thursday evening Beijing time, U.S. stocks opened slightly higher as weaker-than-expected ADP private employment data reinforced market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed later this month. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index both rose 0.2% in early trading. Meanwhile, Bitcoin entered a fragile stage after several days of selling pressure, with prices fluctuating around the $110,000 mark. Analysts pointed out that the market lacks a decisive belief in a rise, and maintaining this key support is crucial for sustaining market sentiment.
Performance of the US Stock Market
The stock market opened moderately higher on Thursday, as weaker-than-expected private employment data boosted bets that the Fed may cut interest rates later this month. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index both rose slightly by 0.2% in early trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 37 points, a gain of 0.1%, weighed down by a sharp decline in Salesforce's stock price.
Interpretation of Economic Data
The ADP report shows that private sector job growth slowed to just 54,000 in August—far below the expected 75,000, and down from the revised 106,000 in July. Weekly initial jobless claims also rose more than expected, climbing to 237,000. These data points intensified signs of a recent slowdown in the labor market, prompting traders to increase bets on a rate cut by the Fed at the September 17 meeting. According to CME's FedWatch tool, federal funds futures are currently pricing in a 97.4% probability of a rate cut, up from 96.6% the previous day.
Sector Performance Analysis
The consumer discretionary sector led the early morning gains, rising 1.49%, with Amazon's stock jumping 3.44%. Financials, utilities, and real estate sectors also showed strength. However, the technology sector fell 0.35% within minutes of the opening, weighed down by Salesforce's weakness, which also dragged down the Dow. The software giant's stock dropped nearly 8%, as its third-quarter revenue outlook was slightly below expectations, despite reporting solid second-quarter results.
Market Focus
Traders are also closely monitoring developments from Washington, where President Trump previously requested the Supreme Court to overturn a ruling that blocks key tariffs. Any unexpected developments in trade could impact the market. Attention is also turning to the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report set to be released at 10 PM Beijing time (10 AM Eastern Time). The market consensus expects a reading of 50.8, up from the previous value of 50.1. If the data falls short of expectations, it could further support the case for monetary easing.
Bitcoin Market Analysis
After several days of selling pressure and uncertainty pushing the price to fluctuate around the $110,000 level, Bitcoin is entering a fragile phase. The bulls are struggling to defend this key area, but momentum has clearly faded. The market is now in a wait-and-see mode, with investors cautiously viewing whether Bitcoin will stabilize or break down in the upcoming trading sessions.
Technical Indicator Interpretation
(Bitcoin Composite Market Index)
According to top analyst Axel Adler, the current structure of Bitcoin remains fragile, as both price and derivative funding flows are below 50, indicating that key indicators are generally weak. Adler emphasized that while a short-term rebound is possible, the market lacks the conviction required for a sustained rising trend. With active trading funding flows still negative and weak, any recovery from current levels could be a mean reversion bounce towards $113,000 (consistent with fair value and the median 30-day range), rather than the start of a new bull market phase.
Key Technical Level Analysis
Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the $110,000 to $111,000 range, showing resilience after weeks of intense selling pressure. The chart highlights how BTC has rebounded from a recent low of around $108,000, but still struggles to regain higher momentum. The 50-day moving average now acts as resistance, limiting upward attempts and reflecting weakening bullish strength.
Despite the pullback from the historical high of $123,000, the structure remains intact above the 200-day moving average (around $101,000), which has consistently served as long-term support. Current price action indicates that the market is in a balanced state: bulls are defending the demand zone, but bears are maintaining pressure as the rebound faces rejection near the $112,000 level.
The flat trajectory of the 100-day moving average reinforces the consolidation phase, indicating a need for a decisive breakout to confirm the direction. If Bitcoin closes above $113,000 in the short term, it may set up a retest of $118,000 (which has served as a mid-range level of support and resistance).
If the level of 110,000 USD cannot be held, BTC may face repeated testing of 108,000 USD and ultimately test the psychological barrier of 105,000 USD. As it stands, the fate of Bitcoin depends on whether buyers can stabilize the flow of funds and absorb the ongoing selling pressure.
Market Outlook
Weak economic data has reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for U.S. stocks, but individual stock performances (like Salesforce) can still lead to significant volatility. Market focus has now completely shifted to the non-farm payroll report, the results of which will greatly influence the Fed's decision in September. The Bitcoin market is showing a typical consolidation pattern, repeatedly testing the critical support near $110,000. Analysts' views are cautious, believing that a fundamental improvement in capital flow and price indices is needed to truly initiate a new round of rises.