Анализ глубоких причин ослабления австралийского доллара: есть ли шанс на разворот в будущем? Перспективы и среднесрочные прогнозы курса австралийского доллара

Пара AUD/USD как одна из пяти наиболее активно торгуемых валютных пар на глобальных рынках обладает достаточной ликвидностью и узкими спредами, что делает её популярным выбором для краткосрочных операций и среднесрочных стратегий различных инвесторов. Однако, несмотря на статус традиционной валюты с высокой доходностью, австралийский доллар за последние десять лет демонстрирует устойчивый тренд обесценивания – за исключением отскоков в отдельные периоды общая динамика остаётся слабой.

Во время пандемии (2020-2021 гг.) австралийский доллар укрепился на 38% к доллару США за год благодаря успешному контролю над COVID-19 в Австралии, сильному спросу азиатских рынков на железную руду и другое сырьё, а также поддержке центрального банка. Однако после этого всплеска AUD в большинстве времени вновь оказался в диапазоне консолидации или нисходящего тренда. Лишь в последние годы с восстановлением цен на сырьё и вступлением ФРС в цикл снижения ставок австралийский доллар вновь испытал повышательное давление, на время коснувшись уровня 0,6636. Хотя в целом за 2025 год AUD укрепился к доллару США примерно на 5-7%, всё же в десятилетней перспективе его динамика остаётся относительно хрупкой.

Почему австралийский доллар долгосрочно слабеет? Анализ трёх структурных困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困困

If you look back at the 1.05 level from early 2013, AUD has depreciated by more than 35% over the past decade, while the US Dollar Index has appreciated 28.35% in the same period. In comparison, the euro, yen and Canadian dollar have also weakened against the US dollar, demonstrating that this is the result of a comprehensive strong US dollar cycle. AUD is not facing a single issue but multiple fundamental factors applying pressure simultaneously.

First, insufficient commodity demand dynamics. Australia’s export structure is highly concentrated in iron ore, coal and energy, giving AUD typical commodity currency characteristics. When Chinese economic momentum picks up, these commodity prices typically rise in tandem, benefiting AUD exchange rates; however, if China’s recovery is limited, even short-term commodity rebounds can lead to an “up then down” pattern for AUD. Recently, the Chinese economy faces adjustment pressures, with noticeably reduced capacity to absorb bulk commodities.

Second, gradually eroding interest rate differentials. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate is around 3.60%, with markets expecting potential rate rises to approximately 3.85% in 2026. Despite the RBA’s relatively hawkish stance, the US Federal Reserve’s policy cycle still dominates global capital flows. If rate hike expectations fail to materialize or the US maintains high rates, the interest differential between Australia and the US cannot widen, significantly reducing AUD’s attraction as a high-yield currency.

Third, global risk environment favours risk-off positioning. US tariff policies impact the global trade landscape, commodity export prospects are uncertain, and weak global economic growth has shifted market sentiment toward safe-haven assets like the US dollar rather than cyclical risk currencies like AUD. Each time AUD approaches previous highs, selling pressure becomes pronounced, reflecting insufficient market confidence in AUD’s near-term direction.

Three Core Observation Points for Grasping AUD’s Medium-Term Trajectory

To determine whether AUD has conditions for sustained appreciation, investors should focus on the interaction of three key variables:

First, RBA monetary policy and interest rate differential structure

AUD has long been viewed as a high-yield currency, with its attractiveness highly dependent on whether interest differentials can reestablish higher levels. If inflation proves sticky and the labour market maintains resilience, the RBA’s hawkish stance will help AUD rebuild interest rate advantages; conversely, if rate hike expectations disappoint, AUD’s support will weaken significantly. The key is whether the RBA can maintain a relatively hawkish policy stance despite the impact of a global central bank easing wave.

Second, degree of Chinese economic recovery and commodity price dynamics

As a major global exporter of minerals and energy, Australia’s economic momentum is highly correlated with Chinese market demand. When Chinese infrastructure and manufacturing activity rebounds, iron ore and other commodity prices typically strengthen in tandem, with AUD exchange rates responding quickly. Therefore, tracking Chinese economic data, policy signals, and commodity supply-demand dynamics is important for forecasting AUD trends.

Third, Federal Reserve policy cycle and global capital flows

From a capital flow perspective, the Fed’s policy direction remains the pivot point for global forex markets. In an easing environment, US dollar weakness typically benefits risk currencies including AUD; however, if risk-aversion sentiment intensifies and capital flows back to the dollar, AUD faces selling pressure even if fundamentals haven’t deteriorated. Recent energy price trends and signals of weak global demand have prompted investors toward risk avoidance, limiting AUD’s upside.

AUD Future Prospects for 2026 and Beyond

The core question for AUD’s future direction is whether “rebounds can turn into trends.” Currently, market views on AUD’s medium-term outlook diverge significantly.

Optimistic scenario: Morgan Stanley predicts AUD/USD could rise toward 0.72 by year-end, primarily based on the RBA maintaining a hawkish policy stance plus commodity price support. Independent statistical models suggest AUD could reach around 0.6875 by end-2026 (range 0.6738-0.7012), advancing further to 0.725 in 2027, assuming Australia’s labour market remains strong and commodity demand recovers.

Conservative scenario: UBS believes that despite relative resilience in Australia’s domestic economy, uncertainty in the global trade environment and Fed policy variables could limit AUD appreciation space, expecting year-end rates around 0.68. Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists present a more cautious view, suggesting AUD recovery may be temporary, predicting exchange rates will peak in March 2026 before declining again by year-end.

Medium-term outlook: AUD will likely oscillate in the 0.68-0.70 range during the first half of 2026, influenced by fluctuations in Chinese economic data and US employment figures. With Australia’s relatively solid fundamentals and the central bank’s hawkish bias, AUD is unlikely to experience sharp collapse; however, constrained by the US dollar’s remaining structural advantages, it’s also unlikely to reach 1.0 highs. Near-term risks mainly stem from Chinese data disappointment, while medium-term support comes from Australia’s resource exports and the trajectory of global commodity cycles.

Overall Assessment of AUD Trends

As the representative currency of commodity-exporting nations, AUD exhibits high correlation with prices of copper, iron ore, coal and other raw materials. Comprehensive market analysis indicates that the RBA’s hawkish stance and strong commodity prices will provide near-term support; however, medium to long-term monitoring of global economic uncertainty and potential US dollar rebounds remains necessary, as these will constrain AUD appreciation and result in choppy price action.

Although forex market volatility is rapid and price movements difficult to predict precisely, AUD’s abundant liquidity, relatively regular volatility patterns, and distinct economic structure characteristics make medium to long-term trend analysis relatively straightforward. To capitalize on AUD’s turning points, investors should continuously track RBA policy directions, Chinese economic data, and Federal Reserve policy signals – the coordinated changes of these three factors will determine AUD’s future appreciation or depreciation trajectory.