Mercados globais de ações, obrigações e commodities em alta, enfraquecimento do iene aumenta a pressão — Visão rápida do cenário de mercado no final de dezembro

Global risk appetite continues to warm. Following the Bank of Japan’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate hike, the risk of unwind in carry trades has eased, coupled with Micron Technology’s strong earnings report, leading to steady gains across major asset classes. The US VIX fear index dropped sharply by 11.57%, indicating a clear improvement in market risk sentiment.

Commodity markets hit new highs, precious metals remain strong

Precious metals continue to perform remarkably. Driven by investment demand and tight supply conditions, silver prices broke through the $67.0 level, reaching a historic high. From a moving average perspective, silver has established a high-base pattern at elevated levels, indicating that the medium-term upward momentum remains intact. Gold closed for the second consecutive trading day at a doji star position, oscillating around $4338.6 per ounce. The crude oil market also followed the upward trend, with WTI crude oil prices rising 1.14% to $56.5 per barrel.

Stock markets rally across the board, US three major indices rise together

Last Friday coincided with the US “quadruple witching” expiration, when futures and options on indices and individual stocks all expired, totaling $7.1 trillion. Against this backdrop, the three major US indices still rose collectively—Dow Jones up 0.38%, S&P 500 up 0.88%, Nasdaq up 1.31%. Oracle led the blue-chip rally with a 6.6% increase; chip manufacturers performed well, with Nvidia and Broadcom rising 3.9% and 3.2%, respectively. In contrast, Nike fell 10.5% due to weak performance in the Chinese market.

In European markets, the FTSE 100 rose 0.61%, Germany’s DAX 30 increased 0.37%, and France’s CAC 40 was nearly flat, up 0.01%. The China Golden Dragon Index also rebounded slightly by 0.86%. Hong Kong night session futures closed at 25,843 points, up 152 points from yesterday.

Bond markets adjust, yields rise across all maturities

The US 10-year benchmark Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.15%, while the 2-year Treasury yield increased 3.2 basis points to 3.492%. Japan’s rate hike pushed the 10-year government bond yield above 2%, reaching a new high since 1999, reflecting growing expectations and pressure for future rate hikes in Japan. France’s 30-year government bond yield rose to 4.525%, the highest since 2009, amid setbacks in budget negotiations.

Forex market: Yen depreciation prominent, carry trade faces challenges

USD/JPY rose 1.39%, approaching the 158.0 level. Although the rate hike by the Bank of Japan should theoretically support the yen, market performance shows that investor concerns over high-leverage carry trades have not dissipated. For global macro hedge funds, the attractiveness of the yen as a funding currency has significantly declined, with the nominal interest rate advantage gradually weakening. Meanwhile, the US dollar index increased 0.3% to 98.7, while EUR/USD dipped slightly by 0.12%.

Crypto assets: Bitcoin and Ethereum see minor adjustments

Bitcoin fell 0.34% over 24 hours, currently trading near 87.71 million; Ethereum declined 0.72% in the same period, with prices around @E5@29,000. The market continues to digest macro data and policy signals.

Macro focus: Japanese Finance Minister warns again on intervention, consumer confidence under pressure

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated after participating in the G7 finance ministers’ online meeting that Japan will take appropriate measures to address excessive exchange rate fluctuations. She pointed out, “In the past half-day or few hours, there have been obvious unilateral and violent fluctuations,” emphasizing that Japan will respond appropriately in line with the September US-Japan joint statement, including addressing speculative-driven excessive volatility.

Regarding the BOJ’s rate hike decision, Suzuki said it was based on wage and price trends, aiming to achieve the 2% inflation target in a sustainable and stable manner. She expects the BOJ to continue working closely with the government to formulate appropriate monetary policies.

The US Consumer Confidence Index also showed signs of weakness. The University of Michigan’s final December consumer sentiment index rose only 1.9 points to 52.9, below economists’ forecast of 53.5. The survey director noted, “Despite signs of improvement at year-end, consumer confidence remains nearly 30% below December 2024 levels.” The current conditions index fell to a historic low of 50.4, with consumers’ willingness to purchase big-ticket items continuing to deteriorate.

Fed officials signal: No further rate adjustments needed in the near term

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams stated that there is no urgency for further rate adjustments at present, as recent employment and inflation data have almost not changed his outlook. He emphasized that the current rate-cutting policy has created a favorable monetary environment, with the goal of returning inflation to 2% while maintaining stable employment.

Cleveland Fed President Mester further indicated that after three consecutive rate cuts, there is no need to adjust rates in the coming months. She opposed the recent rate cuts due to concerns about rising inflation, believing that until at least spring, there is no need to change the target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

US November inflation data hit a four-year low, but Williams pointed out that “technical factors” have distorted the data, related to difficulties in data collection in October and early November. However, from a fundamental perspective, inflation is indeed moving toward the target, and the labor market is gradually cooling.

Company developments: Space policy adjustments, AI chip regulation on agenda

US President Trump confirmed prioritizing the lunar landing program, aiming for crewed lunar missions by 2028 and establishing initial lunar outpost elements before 2030, temporarily shelving Mars missions. This is his first major space policy move in his second term, aiming to surpass China’s lunar exploration plans. SpaceX’s former client, billionaire Elon Musk, has sworn in as NASA’s 15th Administrator.

US House Republicans proposed the “AI Regulation Act,” requiring notification to Congress for AI chip sales to hostile countries. Any processor with performance equal to or higher than Nvidia’s H200 will be subject to regulation. This contrasts with Trump’s early-month promise to allow Nvidia to export H200 chips to China.

ByteDance (TikTok’s parent company) expects profits of $50 billion in 2025, a record high, nearing Meta’s annual profit of around $60 billion. The company has signed a binding agreement to split TikTok’s US operations into a joint venture controlled by US investors (including Oracle).