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Hedge funds shifted from selling yen to buying yen after the Trump administration's policies, significantly impacting currency trends. This transition occurred despite an irrational increase in yen buying, justified by rising yen exchange rates and hedge fund strategies.

The "National Investment Seminar" is a regular event where instructors from Monex Securities travel across the country to share insights on market trends and more. In the fiscal year 2025, the seminar is scheduled to kick off in Nagoya on May 11, followed by events in six cities: Fukuoka, Sapporo, Hachinohe, Naha, and Osaka. Additionally, this year we held a special edition in Akihabara, Tokyo. We will report on the events of the day.
Japanese stocks, US stocks, and foreign exchange: instructors discuss the current market trends.
On July 2, 2025, the "Monex National Investment Seminar in Tokyo" was held at Bellesalle Akihabara. This is the first attempt to hold the "National Investment Seminar" in Tokyo. Normally, it is held on Saturdays or Sundays, but this time, due to it being the first, it took place on a weekday evening. Manex

The recent stagnation of the euro against the dollar is attributed to rising U.S. interest rates and concerns about short-term overvaluation. While there was significant euro appreciation, potential further gains may depend on U.S. market conditions and global monetary policies.

The discussion covers the impact of Trump's tariffs, suggesting they burden American citizens while potentially affecting Japan's exports. It questions how these tariffs may not significantly harm Japan, but instead pose challenges to the U.S. economy, urging a reconsideration of trade policies. Additionally, it highlights overseas investor behavior amidst tariff uncertainties.

The performance of AI learning and inference is influenced by "memory".
DRAM is "temporary memory" and NAND is "long-term storage memory."
Both DRAM and NAND in semiconductors are types of storage devices (memory) for saving data, but they have different uses and characteristics. DRAM is the memory used in computers and smartphones for "temporary storage." It is a "volatile memory" that retains data only while the power is on, and the data is lost when the power is turned off. It has a fast processing speed for reading and writing data, making it an important component for enhancing processing capability.
One type of NAND is used for "long-term storage" in USB memory, smartphones, SSDs (solid-state drives), etc.

Supermicro's stock soared 60.8% in early 2025 after a favorable audit from BDO, despite previous turmoil. However, challenges from supply chain issues and underwhelming revenue growth have left investors cautious. Future performance hinges on the upcoming Blackwell semiconductor launch and market sentiment.

Bitcoin continues to surge, recently hitting all-time highs amidst a stable market, while altcoins show strength. The focus remains on strategic trading positions for both Bitcoin and Ethereum as their upward momentum persists.

This week, major U.S. banks will announce their Q2 earnings, drawing attention to their impact on the economy and forecasts. Analysts see high valuations, yet many stocks remain below target prices. Upcoming results may boost market confidence.

In the week of July 7, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ended lower despite reaching record highs mid-week, influenced by tariff concerns. Nvidia's market cap topped $4 trillion, while energy stocks performed well. Upcoming earnings announcements from financial and tech sectors are expected to shape market sentiment.

The Tokyo stock market experienced a decline due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies, with the Nikkei average falling 110 points. Individual stocks showed mixed results, reflecting market apprehensions ahead of the upcoming Japanese elections and U.S. market trends.

According to CFTC statistics, the yen buying Position has shrunk by 35% since May, but it remains at an all-time high level, and the situation of "Overbought" continues. This correction may affect future yen depreciation.

During the week of July 4-10, Bitcoin reached an all-time high due to trade negotiations and rising tech stocks. Market confidence improved after concerns over large address fund movements were addressed. Expectations around tariff negotiations and potential rate cuts could see Bitcoin eyeing new highs next week.

The essay reflects on summer experiences, including visiting morning glory and hôzuki festivals in Tokyo, while contemplating the season's vibrant essence and flavors. It emphasizes the choice of perspective on the heat and excitement of summer.

The USD/JPY exchange rate remains stagnant after significant fluctuations in early 2025. Speculators maintain a yen appreciation outlook, while monetary policy uncertainties in the U.S. and Japan hinder currency movement. Key economic indicators in mid-2025 may trigger future volatility.

In July 2024, a third U.S. dollar selling intervention led to a rapid reversal of the yen's depreciation to an appreciation, marking a significant monetary shift amidst market speculation and intervention criticisms.

I have criticized Ishiba for "not doing anything" until now. In the previous strategy report (dated July 7, "This Summer's House of Councillors Election and the Stock Market"), I wrote that even if the ruling party loses the House of Councillors election, stocks may rise. The reason is that the Ishiba administration has done nothing (or nearly so), so it would be better if such a government resigns, and therefore the stock price may rise.
I never thought Mr. Ishiba would make such a statement.
"This is a battle for national interests. We cannot be taken lightly." On the 9th, at a street speech in front of JR Funabashi Station, Prime Minister Ishiba stated this and urged in a strong tone, "We must say what needs to be said, even if it is to an ally, in an open and honorable manner."

The essay discusses voting methods available for elderly individuals requiring care or those unable to visit polling stations due to responsibilities like caregiving. It outlines four options, including using voting support cards, mail-in voting, absentee ballots at care facilities, and considerations for those with dementia. The author shares personal experiences related to caregiving and voting.

The US stock market saw major indices rise, led by the Dow, which closed at 44,650.64, up 192.34 points. Positive labor market data and strong earnings from Delta Air Lines boosted investor confidence, prompting gains across various sectors.

The 2025 stock market is volatile, with the S&P500 rising 5.5% amid uncertainty. Identifying oversold stocks like UnitedHealth, Marvell, and Deckers may yield gains as they could outperform the index in the latter half of 2025.