Bitcoin ($BTC) is not only a type of digital asset but also a history full of fluctuations and surprises. Looking back at the year-end holidays in the past 4 years, we can draw important common points and try to predict the future based on past trends.
2020 - Amidst Bull Market
2020 is the year that marks the strong comeback of Bitcoin. With increasing acceptance from major institutions and global monetary easing policies after the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin has surged from below $10,000 at the beginning of the year to over $29,000 at the end of the year.
Main reason:
Increased demand from large organizations like MicroStrategy and Tesla. The story of "digital gold" is becoming popular. Economic stimulus policies and printing money from central banks.
2021 - Start of the Bear Market Cycle
At the beginning of 2021, Bitcoin continued to reach nearly $69,000, but then the price decline cycle began in the middle of the year. By the end of 2021, the price of Bitcoin dropped to around $47,000, marking the transition from a price increase cycle to a price decline cycle.
Cause:
The market is affected by natural adjustments. Concerns about government regulations (China bans Bitcoin mining, the US tightens cryptocurrency supervision). Liquidity is gradually drying up as money flows out of the crypto market.
2022 - Near the End of the Bear Market Cycle
2022 is a challenging year for Bitcoin as the price dropped to a low of around $15,500. A series of negative events such as the collapse of LUNA/UST, Celsius, and finally FTX have shaken investor confidence significantly.
Negative factors:
The collapse of the chains of major cryptocurrency companies. Fear dominates the entire market. The high interest rates from the Federal Reserve (FED) put pressure on risky assets.
2023 - Mid Bull Market Cycle
In 2023, Bitcoin witnessed a gradual recovery, with prices surpassing $30,000 in the middle of the year. Interest returned as major funds like BlackRock applied for Bitcoin Spot ETFs, and the market received positive signals from economic reports.
Highlight:
Signs of the market entering the first half of the price increase cycle. Attention from large financial institutions. Macroeconomic factors, such as the FED's forecast of a slower pace of interest rate hikes, support the recovery of risky assets.
2024 - Where Are We?
Based on the 4-year cycle, Bitcoin tends to move through phases:
Accumulation. Strong price increase. Strong correction. Recovery.
Currently, we may be in the midst of a price increase cycle, when the market still has growth opportunities. However, 2024 is particularly special because it is the year of Halving, an event where the Bitcoin mining reward will be halved. Halving in history has always been a signal to trigger a large price increase cycle.
Prediction for 2024:
First half of the year: The market continues to consolidate with slight fluctuations, depending on the macroeconomic situation and policy decisions of the FED. Second half of the year: There is a possibility that Bitcoin will enter a strong price increase phase after the Halving event, with the goal of breaking previous highest resistance levels ($69,000).
Risk Warning:
Legal and regulatory risks still exist, especially SEC actions. Market sentiment can change rapidly in the face of major events.
Conclusion
History shows that Bitcoin always moves in cycles. Based on what has happened, we can expect an even stronger price increase in the coming months, especially after the Halving event. However, investors need to prepare for unforeseen fluctuations and manage risks carefully.
DYOR! #Write2Win #Write&Earn $BTC
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Predicting Bitcoin Price Journey Through Historical Phases
Bitcoin ($BTC) is not only a type of digital asset but also a history full of fluctuations and surprises. Looking back at the year-end holidays in the past 4 years, we can draw important common points and try to predict the future based on past trends. 2020 - Amidst Bull Market 2020 is the year that marks the strong comeback of Bitcoin. With increasing acceptance from major institutions and global monetary easing policies after the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin has surged from below $10,000 at the beginning of the year to over $29,000 at the end of the year. Main reason: Increased demand from large organizations like MicroStrategy and Tesla. The story of "digital gold" is becoming popular. Economic stimulus policies and printing money from central banks. 2021 - Start of the Bear Market Cycle At the beginning of 2021, Bitcoin continued to reach nearly $69,000, but then the price decline cycle began in the middle of the year. By the end of 2021, the price of Bitcoin dropped to around $47,000, marking the transition from a price increase cycle to a price decline cycle. Cause: The market is affected by natural adjustments. Concerns about government regulations (China bans Bitcoin mining, the US tightens cryptocurrency supervision). Liquidity is gradually drying up as money flows out of the crypto market. 2022 - Near the End of the Bear Market Cycle 2022 is a challenging year for Bitcoin as the price dropped to a low of around $15,500. A series of negative events such as the collapse of LUNA/UST, Celsius, and finally FTX have shaken investor confidence significantly. Negative factors: The collapse of the chains of major cryptocurrency companies. Fear dominates the entire market. The high interest rates from the Federal Reserve (FED) put pressure on risky assets. 2023 - Mid Bull Market Cycle In 2023, Bitcoin witnessed a gradual recovery, with prices surpassing $30,000 in the middle of the year. Interest returned as major funds like BlackRock applied for Bitcoin Spot ETFs, and the market received positive signals from economic reports. Highlight: Signs of the market entering the first half of the price increase cycle. Attention from large financial institutions. Macroeconomic factors, such as the FED's forecast of a slower pace of interest rate hikes, support the recovery of risky assets. 2024 - Where Are We? Based on the 4-year cycle, Bitcoin tends to move through phases: Accumulation. Strong price increase. Strong correction. Recovery. Currently, we may be in the midst of a price increase cycle, when the market still has growth opportunities. However, 2024 is particularly special because it is the year of Halving, an event where the Bitcoin mining reward will be halved. Halving in history has always been a signal to trigger a large price increase cycle. Prediction for 2024: First half of the year: The market continues to consolidate with slight fluctuations, depending on the macroeconomic situation and policy decisions of the FED. Second half of the year: There is a possibility that Bitcoin will enter a strong price increase phase after the Halving event, with the goal of breaking previous highest resistance levels ($69,000). Risk Warning: Legal and regulatory risks still exist, especially SEC actions. Market sentiment can change rapidly in the face of major events. Conclusion History shows that Bitcoin always moves in cycles. Based on what has happened, we can expect an even stronger price increase in the coming months, especially after the Halving event. However, investors need to prepare for unforeseen fluctuations and manage risks carefully. DYOR! #Write2Win #Write&Earn $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)