An interesting opinion from Bitwise: when the market is overwhelmed with maximum panic, it often indicates that the bottom is already near. The company conducted an analysis and noticed that the current level of fear among investors closely resembles those moments when cryptocurrencies fell by 84% and 77% in previous cycles. And you know what? Those drops later turned into incredible buying opportunities.

Bitcoin recently dropped to a 16-month low around $60,000, triggering massive margin liquidations totaling about $5.4 billion over three days. It is now trading around $73,900. The macroeconomic storm — a tough Fed stance, outflows from US spot ETFs, general risk aversion from digital assets. All of this indeed looks bleak.

But here’s what’s interesting: Bitwise points to a historical pattern that repeats cycle after cycle. Asset managers who bought at the 2018 bottom gained about 2000%. Even those who jumped into the market during the 2022 bottom increased their capital by roughly 300% in just over three years. For long-term players, these are not just numbers — they are proof of how this market works.

Why does Bitwise believe the bottom is already near? The company notes that exhaustion of sentiment is a classic signal, not a sudden surge of enthusiasm. The current feeling of fear in the market is a lagging indicator of zones where recovery previously began.

Regarding fundamentals: despite the price, the main argument in favor of this asset class remains strong. The world is becoming increasingly digital, requiring non-fiat currencies. Stablecoins are gaining popularity, tokenization is developing, prediction markets and other innovations are emerging. The gap between price and progress is just another cycle where the market does not reflect what is truly happening in the ecosystem.

Bitwise highlights several potential triggers for a turnaround: legislative acceptance like CLARITY, a return to risk appetite, expectations of rate cuts, and breakthroughs at the intersection of AI and crypto. But if there is no sudden positive shock, the company expects the market to gradually find its bottom. The main advice: patience and a long-term perspective. Wall Street is increasingly integrating with blockchain, and when the fundamentals kick in, the next growth will be inevitable.