Delivery logic support but import window subtly emerging; Shanghai copper spot maintains a premium, showing pressure in its upward movement

Next Monday will be the last trading day for the Shanghai Copper 2603 contract.
According to the SMM# electrolytic copper price methodology, SMM always quotes the current month contract.
The contango month spread for the following month has slightly narrowed, and holders’ willingness to deliver has weakened, marginally easing the support for spot premiums.
At the same time, import losses have significantly narrowed, indicating that the import window may soon open.
If the window opens, it will introduce overseas sources, increasing domestic spot supply pressure and potentially suppressing premiums and discounts.
On the demand side, downstream maintains just-in-time procurement, providing some price support, but within the day, some downstream companies show limited acceptance of high-premium spot goods, and procurement becomes more cautious.
On the supply side, domestic copper and previously locked-in imported sources continue to arrive, and social inventories remain high.
Because SMM always quotes the current month contract, the spread conversion is expected to show a high premium for the current month, but this will be corrected by the second trading day.
Overall, under the dominance of delivery logic, it is expected that next Monday, Shanghai copper spot premiums and discounts will remain in a high premium state.
(SMM)