So I've been looking at the wallet data and there's something interesting happening that feels pretty humdrum on the surface but might matter for what comes next. The small holders - we're talking wallets under 0.1 BTC - they've been accumulating like crazy. Their share of supply just hit the highest point since mid-2024, even though price has just been sitting around these mid-60k levels looking humdrum. Meanwhile the real movers, the whales and sharks holding 10k to 10 million BTC, they've actually been reducing positions since the October peak. It's this split that's keeping things choppy and frustrating.

Here's the thing - retail can provide a floor and spark some short-term moves, but sustained rallies need those big wallets to actually step in and buy. Right now they're distributing into every bounce. Glassnode was showing some optimistic signals after that February capitulation, but when you look at the broader picture across all the larger holders, they're still net negative since October. The mid-sized wallets might've genuinely bought the panic, but the biggest players kept selling into recoveries.

So yeah, the retail crowd is doing their part. But this market stays humdrum until the whales flip from distribution to accumulation. Without that structural demand from the big players, every rally just gets sold into by the same cohort that needs to be buying. It's not complicated - we need the whales to join the party for anything real to happen. Right now it's just shrimps waiting for the sharks to show up.