Just now, my phone popped up a red notification dot, saying "suspected coincidence transfer." When I clicked in, it wasn't really that mysterious... Many of these so-called coincidences are just the same funding group layering their transactions: CEX mentions a relay wallet, then splits into several transfers for bridging/exchanging, finally ending up at a few old addresses. The entire path can be explained by connecting the dots, no need to imagine "someone knew in advance."

Recently, the staking unlocks and token unlock calendar have been repeatedly mentioned; everyone hears "unlock" and automatically assumes selling pressure. I personally prefer to look at these on-chain signals first: whether the unlocked funds go directly to exchanges, or circle around into LPs/hedging, or simply return to cold wallets to sleep. To put it simply, the transfer itself isn't scary; what's scary is not knowing where it’s headed afterward... Take a few steps to trace, and many "coincidences" turn into ordinary transfers.