The Boao Report states that Asia's economic share continues to rise, and the global economic center of gravity is shifting eastward.

What are the long-term driving forces behind the rising share of Asia’s economy?

Boao Forum for Asia released the “Asia Economic Outlook and Integration Process 2026 Annual Report” on March 24. The report projects that Asia’s economic growth rate will reach 4.5% in 2026, remaining a major engine of global economic growth. Liu Ying, a researcher at the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, told Sputnik that the share of Asian economies in the global economy is continuously increasing. This trend is not a short-term phenomenon but a long-term trajectory driven by multiple factors such as demographic dividends, industrial advantages, market advantages, and institutional integration capabilities. Essentially, it reflects the ongoing shift of the global economic center of gravity toward Asia.

Asian economies’ share in the global economy continues to rise

According to the report, the GDP share of Asian economies in the world economy will continue to increase. Based on purchasing power parity, it is expected to rise from 49.2% in 2025 to 49.7% in 2026. “The Asia region remains the most favored area for direct investment capital, with strong development potential and resilience. China and ASEAN are the most attractive economies for foreign investment in Asia,” the report states. Additionally, Asian economies are gradually shifting from “receivers of capital” to outward investors, with active foreign investment activities.

Liu Ying believes that, from the perspectives of economic development trends, contributions to global growth, overall economic scale of Asia, and the evolution of the global international landscape, the share of Asian economies in the global economy is steadily increasing. This outcome results from the combined effects of multiple structural factors.

She pointed out, “According to IMF reports, Asia’s economic size accounts for roughly half of the global economy, with a contribution rate to world economic growth reaching as high as 60%. Moreover, Asia not only accounts for 53% of global manufacturing output value but is also increasingly dominant in high-tech fields, including market expansion, manufacturing upgrades, technological innovation, and regional economic integration. We can see that this includes, centered on ASEAN, the world’s largest free trade zone RCEP, which covers China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, as well as the Asia-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA).”

Liu Ying stated that, in fact, Asia plays a crucial engine role in global economic growth.

“According to research reports, despite current rising trade barriers, increased U.S. policy uncertainties, and escalating geopolitical tensions, strong domestic demand and exports of electronic products remain important supports for Asia’s economic growth. In 2025, the economies of East Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia are projected to grow by 4.7%, 4.7%, and 6%, respectively, with very impressive growth rates,” she specifically pointed out.

The global economic center of gravity is continuously shifting toward Asia

Liu Ying analyzed that the sustained increase in the share of Asian GDP in the global economy is not a short-term phenomenon but a long-term trend driven by demographic dividends, talent dividends, industrial advantages, institutional integration capabilities, capital operation capacity, and market advantages. Essentially, it reflects the ongoing shift of the global economic center toward Asia.

She told Sputnik, “First, the structural leading role of growth momentum, including the new quality of productivity proposed by China, which will play an important role during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. According to the Boao Forum for Asia’s analysis, this fundamentally reflects that Asia is still in the late middle stages of industrialization, urbanization, and digitalization, with higher capital returns and a potential growth rate higher than that of mature economies in Europe and America. Countries like China, ASEAN, and India form a multi-engine pattern, which can hedge against fluctuations of a single economy.”

The report summarizes five major trends in Asia’s structural transformation: comprehensive digital empowerment of Asian economy and trade; green development supporting industrial green transformation; the impact of aging population on Asia’s economy; the increasingly prominent influence of external environment on intra-regional economic and trade relations; and regional cooperation strongly supporting Asia’s economic development and integration.

Liu Ying further pointed out that the second is the advantage of population and market size: “Asia has the largest population in the world, with rapid expansion of middle-income groups. The growth of domestic demand driven by consumption upgrades constitutes a long-term support, and the super-large market effect is increasingly elevating Asia’s weight in the global demand system.”

With a population exceeding 4 billion, Asia’s vast internal demand will support sustained economic growth. China’s large and expanding market will provide new opportunities for global market development and serve as a stable demand anchor for Asia.

“Third, the central position of the industrial chain, supply chain, and manufacturing remains solid,” Liu continued. “Asia is still the core hub of global supply chains, continuously upgrading in high-end manufacturing, digital economy, green economy, and smart economy. Even as global industrial chains are reconstructed, Asia tends more toward regional circulation or intra-industry trade.”

Reports indicate that Asia has become one of the world’s three major supply chain blocks, with the largest emerging markets globally. The region also possesses strong resource integration and allocation capabilities. The report states that despite uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts, rising protectionism, and supply chain “de-risking,” intra-regional trade remains resilient, with China and ASEAN continuing to serve as regional “stability anchors.” The intra-regional trade dependence increased from 56.3% in 2023 to 57.2% in 2024, with major economies generally strengthening their dependence on regional trade.

Liu Ying further analyzed that the fourth trend is the increasing depth of regional economic integration and two-way capital flows: “Regional openness initiatives like RCEP have lowered trade and investment costs. Meanwhile, Asia is shifting from attracting foreign investment to outward investment, with capabilities for capital and technology export, and an increasingly active capital cycle.”

Taking China as an example, data from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce shows that in the first two months of this year, 8,631 new foreign-invested enterprises were established, a year-on-year increase of 14%; the actual use of foreign capital was 161.45 billion yuan. In high-tech industries, actual foreign investment reached 63.21 billion yuan, up 20.4%, accounting for 39.2% of the total foreign investment in China, an increase of 8.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

The fifth trend is the prominent stability of macroeconomic policies and policy space advantages. Experts pointed out that the situation in most Asian countries remains relatively stable. Compared to developed countries with high debt and inflation pressures, most Asian countries still have room for fiscal and monetary policies, especially China, which has stronger resilience and better shock absorption capacity.

Zhang Yuyan, Dean of the School of International Politics and Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences University, explained at the press conference that most Asian economies are still in a fiscal expansion phase, relying on expansionary fiscal policies to maintain stable growth; monetary policies are generally accommodative but with some uncertainties. If rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, monetary policy may adjust accordingly.

Summarizing these multiple factors, Liu Ying concluded that in the near future, many Asian economies will rank among the world’s fastest-growing, and the region will become an important engine of global economic growth.

At the press conference for the 2026 Annual Meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia and the release of the flagship report, Secretary-General Zhang Jun said, “Despite numerous challenges, Asia’s economy still demonstrates strong resilience, showing positive trends and prospects, and making significant contributions to the world economy, global trade, and sustainable development.” He stated that the process of Asian economic integration and sustainable development will inevitably face many difficulties and challenges, but as long as all parties remain confident, united, and courageous, they can further promote high-quality development of Asia’s economy and build a new development pattern supporting the ‘Asian Century.’"

The Boao Forum for Asia’s 2026 Annual Meeting will be held from March 24 to 27 in Hainan’s Boao. It will feature a series of high-level dialogues, sub-forums, and roundtables. The theme of the 2026 Annual Meeting is “Shaping a Shared Future: New Trends, New Opportunities, New Cooperation,” with four main topics: “Grasping Global Trends and Leading Development,” “Deepening Regional Cooperation and Stimulating Vitality,” “Promoting Transformation and Innovation to Unlock Development Potential,” and “Strengthening Partnerships for Inclusive Development.”