I noticed an interesting trend that could reformat the entire American betting market. Standard Chartered released a curious analysis of how stablecoins are starting to seriously affect demand for Treasury bills—these are short-term debt instruments that cryptocurrency issuers use as reserves to back their tokens.

I’m making a simple calculation: if the market capitalization of stablecoins grows from the current 300-320 billion to 2 trillion by 2028, then demand for Treasury bills could increase by as much as 1 trillion dollars. Tether and Circle already hold tens of billions of such bills—it's like a major sovereign investor suddenly started actively buying Treasury paper.

The most interesting part of the bank’s outlook is the potential supply shortfall. With expected demand of about 2.2 trillion dollars (включая purchases ФРС) and a supply of only 1.3 trillion, a gap of 900 billion arises. The U.S. Treasury could solve this problem by increasing the share of Treasury bills in the debt composition and even pausing auctions of 30-year bonds for several years.

What does this mean for the market? First, crypto capital will start directly financing the U.S. government. Second, the short end of the yield curve could face serious pressure. Third, it creates an opportunity for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to restructure the debt more flexibly.

Of course, you need to keep in mind that the growth of stablecoins has recently slowed down. Bitcoin has fallen by more than 50% from the October peak of 126 000 dollars, and demand has weakened after the adoption of the GENIUS law. But Standard Chartered thinks this is a cyclical factor and still expects the trend to recover by 2028.

For now, stablecoins remain at 300+ billion, but if the story repeats and the market recovers, then we really could see a transformation of the U.S. interest-rate market. This is one of those quiet stories that later has a huge impact on macroeconomics.