Over the past few days, seeing Bitcoin rise close to $75,000 at one point, I thought a full-scale recovery was finally underway, but it quickly dropped back to the $74,000 range. From a day trader’s perspective, it looks unstable, but in fact, when viewed on a weekly basis, almost all major coins have risen by more than 5%. Ethereum is up over 13%, XRP has also doubled digits, and Dogecoin has increased by over 9%. I feel this is a significantly broad upward trend not seen since the tense Iran situation.

What’s interesting is that this rise started from adjustments in derivative positions. In other words, large short positions were liquidated, forcing market makers to buy back spot. It’s more influenced by positioning than fundamental demand. However, we can’t overlook the data showing inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reaching about $767 million last week. Continuous positive inflows for three weeks in a row indicate a sharp turnaround from the large outflows at the beginning of the year.

Recently, I noticed a convergence phenomenon between Bitcoin and gold. Since early March, Bitcoin has outperformed gold by over 13%, and the 90-day correlation between the two has fluctuated significantly. It feels like the narrative of digital gold is making a comeback. Looking at these convergence trends, I truly feel that institutional investors’ movements are changing.

Next, we’re waiting for the results of the Federal Reserve meeting. A rate hold is almost certain, but the dot plot and Chair Powell’s press conference could significantly change the outlook for risk assets moving forward. With crude oil exceeding $100, the risk of stagflation can’t be ignored, and concerns about a weak labor market remain. We need to keep a close eye on how things develop from here.