Been watching the whale wallets pretty closely and there's something interesting happening. The big holders bought hard during that Iran dip a few weeks back when BTC was in the 62K-69K range, but soon as price bounced to 74K they started dumping. Offloaded like 66% of what they'd just accumulated. Classic profit-taking, right? Here's where it gets weird though. While whales were selling into the rally, retail investors were actually buying the dip when price slipped back under 70K. That's the pattern that usually means correction isn't finished yet. Santiment flagged this exact dynamic as a bearish signal. On top of that, roughly 43% of bitcoin's supply is underwater right now. So every time we pump, you get these holders who've been sitting at a loss for weeks just wanting to break even. That's what we saw at 74K - whales taking profit plus bagholders exiting at cost basis created a wall of selling pressure. Market sentiment is deep in extreme fear territory too, Fear and Greed Index sitting around 12. The way I see it, this either goes one of two ways. Either retail exhausts their buying power and we test that 60K support level for real. Or the selling dries up, underwater supply gets absorbed, and we break above 74K with some conviction. The whale behavior this week is telling me they're betting on the first scenario. Volatility's been crazy but we're basically flat on the month, which happens when every rally gets sold and every dip gets bought by people chasing bounces.

BTC-1.43%
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