Tom Lee: The net effect of the war on the U.S. economy is positive, and the market has already begun pricing in favorable outcomes.

ME News message. On April 15 (UTC+8), Ethereum treasury/custody company BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in an interview with CNBC, “The reason the stock market remains resilient is that even in the face of war, the economy is actually performing better than expected.” He noted that defense spending is currently about $30 billion per month and may rise to $60 billion per month in the future, which would have a significant stimulative effect on the economy; meanwhile, an increase of $20 in oil prices per month only adds about $12 billion in additional expenses for households. “Overall, the war is actually helping corporate profits right now.” Tom Lee cited historical precedents, saying, “Looking back at World War II, the stock market bottomed out in May 1942, just five months after the United States entered the war. At that time, there were even no U.S. troops that had set foot on the European or Pacific battlefields.” He believes that, “The market is very good at pricing in outcomes in advance. Right now, the stock market is rising, which means the market is pricing in a favorable outcome. Even though I can’t spell out the specific reasons, that’s the signal the market’s performance is conveying.” Regarding the three major variables in the current market—an Iran war, corporate earnings reports, and interest rates—Tom Lee said, “Among the three, only war can create tail events in two directions, so this is the variable most worth closely watching.” In terms of sector allocation, he continues to be bullish on the energy sector track, and pointed out that energy security is one of the most important structural themes in recent years. (Source: ChainCatcher)