Tom Lee: The net effect of the war on the U.S. economy is positive, and the market has already begun pricing in favorable outcomes.

Mars Finance News, on April 15th, Ethereum treasury company BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in an interview with CNBC, “The reason the stock market remains resilient is because even in the face of war, the economy is actually performing better than expected.” He pointed out that defense spending is currently about $30 billion per month and may rise to $60 billion per month in the future, which has a significant stimulative effect on the economy; at the same time, a $20 increase in oil prices per month only adds about $12 billion in burden to households. “Overall, the war is actually helping corporate profits at the moment.” Tom Lee cited historical precedents, saying, “Looking back at World War II, the stock market bottomed in May 1942, just five months after the U.S. entered the war, and at that time, no U.S. troops had even set foot on European or Pacific battlefields.” He believes, “The market is good at pricing in results in advance. Currently, the stock market is rising, which means the market is pricing in a favorable outcome. Although I can’t specify the exact reason, this is the signal conveyed by the market’s performance.” Regarding the three major variables in the current market—Iran war, corporate earnings reports, and interest rates—Tom Lee said, “Among the three, only war can create tail events in two directions, so this is the most closely watched variable.” In terms of sector allocation, he remains bullish on the energy sector and pointed out that energy security is one of the most important structural themes in recent years.