Market Strategy Tips (April 14 — April 15, from yesterday to today)

Market Analysis
From yesterday to today (April 14 — April 15), the market is in a resonant phase of “expectations for a second round of US-Iran negotiations heating up + signals from the Federal Reserve that inflation is easing + global risk appetite fully recovering.” After gold stabilized above the $4,700 level, it has continued to rebound, pushing toward the $4,800 historic high, showing a pattern of solid bottom support, marginal improvement in bullish sentiment, and a relatively strong choppy-to-constructive range-bound structure; the crypto market is rising strongly in parallel. Bitcoin broke through $76,000 to hit a near one-month high, mainstream coins surged across the board, and the market is displaying a strong rally driven by continuing institutional capital inflows and concentrated short liquidations.
Macro News
1. The market’s core trading logic has shifted to a “repair theme of marginal easing of Federal Reserve policy expectations + a decrease in tail risks from geopolitical conflicts + phased easing of stagflation concerns,” and expectations for rate cuts within the year have clearly warmed. On April 14, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book (local time), showing that U.S. economic activity expanded slightly, the labor market heat continued to cool, and inflation pressure generally eased across most regions, creating room for the Federal Reserve to adjust policy. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in April and June is still over 97%, but the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 48%. The pricing for 1 rate cut for the full year has increased to 72%, and expectations of zero rate cuts have noticeably cooled. For the Middle East situation, the White House confirmed that the first round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran has made constructive progress. Both sides agreed to hold a second high-level meeting in Islamabad on April 16, and market expectations for extending a ceasefire agreement have heated up, with the marginal tail risk from geopolitical conflicts decreasing; however, Iran has still not relaxed its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil remains in a high-range consolidation around $108–$110 per barrel, and stagflation concerns have not been fully eliminated. The U.S. Dollar Index fell from 104.8 to 104.3, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated to 4.31%, temporarily weakening macro pressure on non-yield assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies. Global risk appetite has continued to recover, and all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher across the board.
2. After gold stabilized at a key support level, it rebounded strongly, pushing toward a historic high, as macro pressure weakened and institutional funds returned, forming a resonant upswing. International spot gold opened yesterday at $4,685, then continued to rise in a one-way move, reaching a peak of $4,792 and approaching the $4,800 historic high. As of now in the Asian session, it is quoted at $4,767.52 per ounce, up 1.75% over 24 hours. COMEX gold futures also strengthened in parallel, topping out at $4,812 and with the latest at $4,792.9 per ounce, up 0.53% intraday. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold main contract is quoted at 1050.42 yuan/gram, up 0.79% today; Gold T+D is at 1049.42 yuan/gram, up 0.79% today. Retail quotes for popular brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang remain in the 1445–1450 yuan/gram range. The core drivers of this round of moves are: (1) The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book released signals that inflation is easing, with both the dollar and U.S. Treasuries falling, significantly reducing macro pressure on gold; (2) Uncertainty remains in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and geopolitical safe-haven demand provides a bottom support for gold; (3) The long-term logic of global central banks continuously buying gold has not changed. Data from the World Gold Council shows that in Q1, global central bank net gold purchases increased by 18% year over year. Physical buying support in the $4,650–$4,700 range remains strong. On the capital-flow side, the world’s largest gold ETF—SPDR Gold Trust—added 2.37 tons on April 14, bringing holdings to 1058.11 tons. This ended the prior streak of net outflows over multiple consecutive days, and institutional capital has shown clear marginal return. Key current levels: Core support at $4720–$4750 (support from top-to-bottom conversion), strong support at $4680–$4700 (the breakout zone for this rally, a key line separating longs and shorts); core resistance at $4780–$4800; and strong resistance at $4850 (the historic high area).
3. The crypto market has seen a one-way, blowout surge. Bitcoin broke through $76,000 to reach a stage high, driven by a triple upward momentum: institutional capital returning + short positions getting forcibly liquidated. Bitcoin opened yesterday at $71,450, then continued to surge strongly, breaking through three key levels in succession: 72000, 74000, and 76000. It reached a high of $76,016.7, the highest in nearly a month. As of now, it is quoted at $75,850, up more than 6% over 24 hours. Ethereum also surged sharply, topping out at $2,415, and the latest is $2,390, up more than 9% over 24 hours. Mainstream coins such as SOL and DOGE are also up more than 8% across the board, and bullish sentiment has fully exploded. Regarding capital and on-chain data: BTC spot ETF recorded net inflows of $236 million on April 14, a new daily net inflow high over nearly two weeks. Among them, Fidelity’s FBTC posted net inflows of $158 million. Grayscale’s GBTC net outflow narrowed to $8.9 million, indicating a large return of institutional capital. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed again that from April 6–12 it cumulatively added 4,871 BTC, with total holdings surpassing 767,000 BTC, continuously providing bottom support to the market. In the derivatives market, the number of liquidated positions across the entire network over 24 hours was 102,000 people, with total liquidation amount of $214 million, of which short liquidations accounted for 82%. Concentrated short liquidations have become the core catalyst pushing up this round. On-chain data also shows that exchanges’ BTC recorded daily net outflows exceeding 28,000 BTC, a two-month high. Below $72,000, whale addresses have shown clearly visible accumulation actions. Among transfers of large amounts in the thousand-coin range, the share of additions has rebounded to 78%. The proportion of long-term holding addresses remains at a high level of 63%, meaning selling pressure at the base layer is extremely limited. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to 58, entering a neutral-to-slightly-optimistic range, and overall market sentiment has recovered across the board. From a technical perspective, the daily timeframe has successfully broken through the strong resistance level of $73,000, fully opening the medium-term uptrend. Above, only the $78,000–$80,000 range has strong historical trapped-position resistance.
Special Reminder
Gold is currently approaching the $4,800 historic high. Bullish sentiment continues to warm, but the Federal Reserve’s high-interest-rate environment has not fundamentally shifted. The supply-overhang in the $4,800+ historic high area is still heavy, and short-term volatility risk has increased significantly. Do not blindly chase after highs; watch out for the risk of a rapid pullback caused by profit-taking from long positions closing. It is recommended to operate with a light position size. If the price pulls back to the $4720–$4750 support zone, consider taking small long positions. Set a strict stop-loss at $4680. If the price rebounds into the $4780–$4,800 range, reduce positions when approaching resistance. Control your position size throughout the process to avoid risks from extreme volatility at high levels.
In this round, the crypto market’s strong rally has already broken through previous strong resistance levels, and the medium-term uptrend has been fully opened with market sentiment fully recovering. However, after the short-term rally has become too large, there is still a need for a technical pullback. Chasing higher prices above $76,000 carries significantly increased risk. It is strictly forbidden to pile into positions or go all-in. Your position must be controlled within 40%. Only after the market stabilizes and holds in the $73,000–$74,000 support range should you consider scaling in with additional positions in batches. If the price again effectively breaks down below the $73,000 level, you must be alert to short-term pullback risk, reduce positions promptly to lock in profits, and prioritize avoiding the risk of a pullback from high levels.